Use of Pressure Management to Reduce the Probability of Pipe Breaks: A Bayesian Approach
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141, Issue 9
Abstract
As pipe breaks in water distribution networks produce serious consequences, water authorities strive to minimize the frequency of their occurrence. Pressure management is an essential tool to reduce the frequency of breaks and it is closely linked to the proper analysis of a maximum pressure indicator. A methodology that compares the unconditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the parametric break-conditioned CDF of the maximum pressure indicator is proposed in this paper. The relationship between the CDFs compared is established by means of the Bayes’ theorem, which allows determining a probability ratio. The objective is to identify the range of operation of maximum pressure that is most likely to reduce pipe breaks. The methodology is applied to four sectors of the water distribution network in Madrid (Spain). In three of those sectors, the maximum pressure indicator is a good predictor of the probability of pipe breaks, confirming that the probability of breaks increases for high maximum pressure ranges. The methodology is validated in one sector, and results provide good agreement between predicted and observed failure rates.
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Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Center for Technological Industrial Development (CDTI) through the TecoAgua Project (Sustainable Development of Technologies for the Integral Water Cycle). The company Canal de Isabel II Gestión S.A. provided the data used in this work and scientific and technological advice is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions to improve the quality of the paper.
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Information & Authors
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141 • Issue 9 • September 2015
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 15, 2014
Accepted: Dec 20, 2014
Published online: Feb 6, 2015
Discussion open until: Jul 6, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015
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