Unintended Consequences of Involving Stakeholders Too Late: Case Study in Multi-Objective Management

This paper examines a case where a plan for aquifer management was constructed on the basis of a single criterion. Though the plan was constructed with stakeholder engagement, the criterion for planning success was predefined before any public input was solicited. The Texas state legislature had mandated all regions establish an aquifer plan but it also created the metric for planning success which it operationalized as the aquifer storage remaining after 50 years. The region of the research reported in this paper met the state’s requirement by setting a target for 50% of aquifer storage to remain after 50 years, a so-called 50/50 rule. As this aquifer is functionally nonrenewable, the 50-year storage target is only meaningful when defined in the context of a so-called terminal condition, or a time period for aquifer exhaustion. It is argued that the technical criterion and the policy target were introduced too early. This obviated important pathways of public discussion that could have addressed how to transition from irrigated to dryland agriculture. Discourse instead was filtered through the lens of this simple so-called future condition criterion, which virtually forced policy and policy discourse to center almost exclusively on irrigation restrictions as the way to extend the life of the aquifer. This narrowed focus had several unintended consequences. The final plan reduces agricultural producer profitability today but it also reduces profitability into the distant future, and the plan actually accelerates rather than slows the pace at which producers eventually exit irrigated agriculture. A more meaningful focus might have been discussion on what a transition to dryland might look like and when it might occur. The attempt to extend the life of the aquifer through irrigation restrictions not only fails to extend aquifer life but it defers any real discussion on dryland conversation. More open and more unconstrained conversation needs to occur before experts ever introduce technical planning criteria.