Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts as Innovations and the Challenges of Adoption by Water Managers
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141, Issue 5
Abstract
Technological advances in forecasting the Earth’s climate offer a potentially useful tool to support planning and management decisions in water resources. Previous research has found that the implementation of new ideas and practices are impeded by many challenges such as low forecast skill, institutional obstacles, and political disincentives to innovation. To better understand barriers to forecast use at seasonal-to-interannual, decadal, or longer time scales, this paper evaluates a diffusion of innovations (DoI) framework to assess the adoption of hydroclimatic forecasts by water managers in the Northeast United States. Specifically, this paper seeks to understand how five innovation characteristics, relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability, influence the rate of adoption. Methods used for this analysis include the distribution of a survey, interviews, and a literature review. Results indicated that while much attention has focused on institutional obstacles, in the Connecticut River Basin obstacles were related to characteristics of the forecasts themselves. Evaluation of the DoI makes clear that the challenges to forecast use are common to all innovations.
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Acknowledgments
This work is funded under a grant from the Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310182). The views expressed in this report represent those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of NOAA. The authors appreciate the efforts of water managers of the Connecticut River basin who came to the workshop, completed surveys and spoke with us. An additional thanks to Ed Sarachik who first recommended that coauthor Casey Brown read Diffusion of Innovations. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers and the editor for their valuable insights and suggestions, which contributed significantly to improving this paper.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 141 • Issue 5 • May 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 9, 2013
Accepted: Jun 2, 2014
Published online: Jul 25, 2014
Discussion open until: Dec 25, 2014
Published in print: May 1, 2015
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