Stochastic Assessment of Long-Term Impacts of Phosphorus Management Options on Sustainability with and without Climate Change
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 139, Issue 5
Abstract
In this study, a combination of two modified versions of the SWAT 2005 model are used to estimate the impact of several best management practices on phosphorus loading to the Cannonsville reservoir in upstate New York as a function of variable weather and climate. The management scenarios in this study include a base case scenario in which management practices are not changed and three other scenarios in which new practices are implemented to reduce the amount of phosphorus applied to the watershed. The long-term impacts of these scenarios are investigated using historical data and stochastically generated weather data that incorporate projected climate change. The projected changed climate data are used to investigate the impact of a changed climate on the nutrient loading and the effectiveness of the three management practices on reducing nutrient loading to the reservoir. The methodology used here can be helpful to other watersheds as well to assess long term response to best management practices or their absence in the face of uncertainty about future weather and climate.
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Acknowledgments
The input for a large amount of information used in the data files for the Cannonsville model came from many sources as discussed in Tolson (2005) and the flow and water quality data was provided by Pat Bishop of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. Dan Wilks provided the code to stochastically generate the weather and gave advice on how to modify it for climate change. The time for the authors to work on this research was provided in part by NSF Grants EAR 0711491 and CBET 075675 to C. Shoemaker and a USDA CEAPA grant to T. Steenhuis and C. Shoemaker.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 139 • Issue 5 • September 2013
Pages: 512 - 519
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 17, 2011
Accepted: Oct 1, 2012
Published online: Oct 3, 2012
Discussion open until: Mar 3, 2013
Published in print: Sep 1, 2013
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