Framework for Anticipatory Water Management: Testing for Flood Control in the Rijnland Storage Basin
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140, Issue 4
Abstract
Anticipatory water management uses weather forecasts and water system simulation models to take operational water management actions before an event occurs. In this paper a framework consisting of the different steps and challenges of developing and evaluating an anticipatory water management strategy is discussed. The framework makes use of recent developments in ensemble weather forecasting and modeling of controlled water systems. In particular, flexible water-system control models enable simulation of a wide range of control strategies in multiyear hindcast analyses. With the increasing number of archives for weather forecasts and water-system-state variables, and the reduction in computational time resulting from increasing processor speed and parallel computing, hindcast verification analysis will become the basis for development and optimization of new operational water management strategies. The framework is successfully applied to a flood control case study in the Netherlands. Archived ensemble precipitation forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were fed into a simulation model of the water system to create water-level hindcasts. Decision rules to take anticipatory flood control actions on the basis of these ensemble forecasts have been developed. The optimized decision rules proved successful in reducing total damage costs resulting from deviations from target water levels for an analysis period of seven years.
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Acknowledgments
The data for this research were kindly provided by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and the Rijnland Water Board. The software for performing NSGAII optimization was developed and provided by Wilmer Barreto. The research is partially funded by the Delft Cluster research program and the Rijnland Water Board.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 140 • Issue 4 • April 2014
Pages: 533 - 542
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 16, 2010
Accepted: Jul 26, 2012
Published online: Aug 15, 2012
Discussion open until: Jan 15, 2013
Published in print: Apr 1, 2014
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