Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Flood Discharges in the United States
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 5
Abstract
This study reflects a portion of the riverine analysis for a Federal Emergency Management Agency initiative to estimate the economic risks associated with climate and land use change to the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program. Specifically, this paper investigates how the 1% annual chance flood discharge, (equivalent to a 100-year return period flood), may change based on climate change and population projections through the year 2100. Watershed characteristics and observations of climate indicators at 2,357 U.S. Geological Survey gauging stations were used to develop regression relationships to estimate . Projections of the climate indicators that measure extremes in temperature and precipitation from a suite of global climate models were then used within a Monte Carlo sampling framework to estimate future changes to throughout the United States, while also translating the uncertainty resulting from multiple climate model projections into uncertainty in estimating the future . Population growth models consistent with climate model emission assumptions were used to estimate increases to impervious area over the next century, along with corresponding contributions to the estimates. The study provides a screening-level analysis of possible changes to flow and suggests spatial trends across the United States. The results suggest that may increase substantially over many areas of the United States over the next century, especially in the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and highly urbanized areas.
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Acknowledgments
This article is dedicated to our dear friend and colleague, David Divoky, who passed away on February 4, 2012. Dave’s creativity and leadership throughout this work were an inspiration to us all.
This work was performed under contract with FEMA. The authors acknowledge the assistance provided by FEMA Headquarters staff, especially Mark Crowell, the FEMA Technical Leader who oversaw the entire project and provided critical review and guidance throughout. We especially thank the many individuals at AECOM and Michael Baker, Jr., who contributed a variety of expertise to the project, as well as our external senior review panel, who provided both technical support and valuable feedback throughout the duration of the project. We also acknowledge the modeling groups for making their model output available for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving these data, and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP’s) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for organizing the model data analysis activity. The (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set is supported by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. Finally, thanks are also given to three anonymous journal reviewers whose detailed comments have greatly strengthened the presentation of this paper.
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© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 30, 2010
Accepted: Jan 30, 2012
Published online: Aug 15, 2012
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
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