Two Faces of Uncertainty: Climate Science and Water Utility Planning Methods
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 5
![First page of PDF](/cms/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000188/asset/64c120a5-452b-4d05-aae0-3745b1633147/assets/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000188.fp.png)
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the WUCA for their leadership in commissioning the two demand-driven white papers on climate change and water resources (Barsugli et al. 2009; Means et al. 2010); Tom Johnson, Karen Metchis, Jill Neal, and Jeff Yang of the EPA; and Deborah Kemp at Abt Associates for their technical advice and direction on Vogel and Smith (2010) and Vogel et al. (2011). Finally, we acknowledge the many water utility staff members who have taken the time to discuss the nexus of climate change and water issues with the research team. Dr. Barsugli acknowledges the Western Water Assessment for providing his funding during the preparation of this paper.
References
Barsugli, J. J., Shin, S.-I., and Sardeshmukh, P. D. (2006). “Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of Tropical Ocean warming.” Clim. Dyn., 27, 483–492.
Barsugli, J. J., Anderson, C., Smith, J. B., and Vogel, J. M. (2009). “Options for improving climate modeling to assist water utility planning for climate change.”, Water Utility Climate Alliance, San Francisco, 〈http://www.wucaonline.org/assets/pdf/actions_whitepaper_120909.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Brekke, L. D., Dettinger, M. D., Maurer, E. P., and Anderson, M. (2008). “Significance of model credibility in projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological impacts of climate change.” Climatic Change, 89, 371–394.
CH2M HILL. (2008). “Climate change study report on evaluation methods and climate scenarios.” Final Report, Prepared for the Lower Colorado River Authority and San Antonio Water System, November, 103.
Christensen, J. H.,et al. (2007). “Regional climate projections.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York.
Crowe, K., and Parker, W. (2008). “Using portfolio theory to guide reforestation and restoration under climate change scenarios.” Climatic Change, 89, 355–370.
Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H. (2012). “Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability.” Clim. Dyn., 38, 527–546.
East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD). (2009). “WSMP 2040: Water Supply Management Program 2040 Plan.” East Bay Municipal Utility District, Oakland, CA, October, 150.
Freas, K., Bailey, B., Munévar, A., and Butler, S. (2008). “Incorporating climate change in water planning.” J. AWWA, 100(6), 92–99.
Gleckler, P. J., Taylor, K. E., and Doutriaux, C. (2008). “Performance metrics for climate models.” J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06104.
Gould, J.,et al. (2004). “Argo profiling floats bring new era of in situ ocean observations.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 85(19), 185.
Groves, D. G., Davis, M., Wilkinson, R., and Lempert, R. (2008a). “Planning for climate change in the Inland Empire: Southern California.” Water Resour. Impact, 10(4), 14–17.
Groves, D. G., Yates, D., and Tebaldi, C. (2008b). “Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning.” Water Resour. Res., 44, W12413.
Hawkins, E., and Sutton, R. (2009). “The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 195–1107.
Hawkins, E., and Sutton, R. (2011). “The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change.” Clim. Dyn., 37(1–2), 407–418.
Hegerl, G. C.,et al. (2007). “Understanding and attributing climate change.” Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York.
Hoerling, M., Eischeid, J., and Perlwitz, J. (2010). “Regional precipitation trends: Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing.” J. Climate, 23(8), 2131–2145.
Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, New York.
Johnson, T., and Weaver, C. (2009). “A framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems.” Environ. Manage., 43(1), 118–134.
Kushnir, Y., Seager, R., Ting, M., Naik, N., and Nakamura, J. (2010). “Mechanisms of tropical Atlantic SST influence on North American precipitation variability.” J. Climate, 23, 5610–5628.
Le Treut, H.,et al. (2007). “Historical overview of climate change.” Climate change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York.
Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. (2006). “A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios.” Manage. Sci., 52(4), 514–528.
Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. (2003). Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
Maurer, E. P., Brekke, L., Pruitt, T., and Duffy, P. B. (2007). “Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies.” EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union, 88(47), 504.
McNie, E. (2008). “Co-producing useful climate science for policy: Lessons from the RISA program.” Doctoral dissertation. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO.
Means, E., Patrick, R., Ospina, L., and West, N. (2005). “Scenario planning: A tool to manage future water utility uncertainty.” J. AWWA, 97(10), 68–75.
Means, E. G., Laugier, M. C., Daw, J. A., Kaatz, L., and Waage, M. D. (2010). “Decision support planning methods: Incorporating climate change uncertainties into water planning.” Water Utility Climate Alliance, San Francisco, 〈http://www.wucaonline.org/assets/pdf/actions_whitepaper_012110.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Meehl, G. A.,et al. (2007). “The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research.” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383–1394.
Metropolitian Water District (MWD). (2010). “Integrated water resources plan update.” Draft Release July 2010, The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.
Miller, K., and Yates, D. (2006). “Climate change and water resources: A primer for municipal water providers.” AWWA Research Foundation, Denver, CO, and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.
Milly, P. C. D.,et al. (2008). “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?” Science, 319, 573–574.
Morgan, M.,et al. (2009). “Synthesis and assessment product. 5.2. Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in climate decision making.” U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC.
New York City Department of Environmenal Protection (NYCDEP). (2008). “The New York City Department of Environmental Protection Climate Change Program Assessment and Action Plan: Report 1.” May.
O’Neil, K., Esterson, K., and Kiker, G. (2008). Scenario planning under uncertainty using a dynamic DSS. “Proc., American Water Resources Association 2008 Annual Water Resources Conf.” New Orleans, LA, November 17–20, 44.
Palmer, R. N. (2007). “Final report of the climate change technical committee.” Rep. of the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.
Palmer, R. N., and Hahn, M. (2002). “The impacts of climate change on Portland’s water supply: An investigation of potential hydrologic and management impacts on the Bull Run System.” Portland Water Bureau. January.
Regional Water Providers Consortium. (1996). “Portland regional water supply plan, Portland, OR.”
Regional Water Providers Consortium. (2004). “Portland regional water supply plan update, Portland, OR.” Regional Water Providers Consortium, 〈http://www.conserveh2o.org/sites/default/files/resources/plans/RWSP_04Update.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Reichler, T., and Kim, J. (2008). “How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate?” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., (March), 303–311.
Schwartz, P. (1991). “The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world.” Doubleday, New York.
Seattle Public Utilities (SPU). (2006). “2007 water system plan.” Seattle Public Utilities, Seattle, WA, 〈http://www.cityofseattle.net/util/About_SPU/Water_System/Plans/2007WaterSystemPlan/SPU01_002126.asp〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Shin, S. I., and Sardeshmukh, P. D. (2010). “Critical influence of the pattern of tropical ocean warming on remote climate trends.” Clim. Dyn., 〈http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Utilities/Projects/source_water_mp/NOAA_Study_Final_Report_209.pdf〉,.
Smith, J. B., Strzepek, K., Rozaklis, L., Ellinghouse, C., and Hallett, K. C. (2009). “The potential consequences of climate change for Boulder Colorado’s water supplies.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, 〈http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Utilities/Projects/source_water_mp/NOAA_Study_Final_Report_209.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA). (2009). Water resource plan, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Las Vegas, NV.
Stainforth, D. A., Allen, M. R., Tredger, E. R., and Smith, L. A. (2007a). “Confidence, uncertainty and decision support relevance in climate predictions.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145–2161.
Stainforth, D. A., Downing, T. E., Washington, R., Lopez, A., and New, M. (2007b). “Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365(1857), 2163–2177.
Stickel, L. (2007). “The challenges for incorporating climate change and variability information into water supply decision making.” Western States Water Council Workshop on Climate Change Research Needs, Irvine, CA, May 16–18, 〈http://www.westgov.org/wswc/stickel_wswcmay07.ppt〉 (Jun. 28, 2012).
Stratus Consulting and MWH Global. (2009). Implications of climate change for adaptation by wastewater and stormwater agencies, Water Environment Research Foundation, Alexandria, VA.
Sutton, R. T., and Hodson, D. L. R. (2005). “Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.” Science, 309, 115–118.
Vogel, J. M., and Smith, J. B. (2010). “Climate change vulnerability assessments: A review of water utility practices.”, Prepared by Stratus Consulting and Abt Associates under EPA Contract EP-C-07-023, WA 2-13, 〈http://water.epa.gov/scitech/climatechange/upload/Climate-Change-Vulnerability-Assessments-Sept-2010.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Vogel, J. M., Zoltay, V., Smith, J. B., and Kemp, D. (2011). “Climate change vulnerability assessments: Four case studies of water utility practices.”, Prepared by Stratus Consulting Inc. and Abt Associates Inc. under EPA contract EP-C-07-023, WA 2-14, 〈http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm?deid=233808〉 (Jun. 28, 2010).
Waage, M. D., and Kaatz, L. (2011). “Nonstationary water planning: An overview of several promising planning methods.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47(3), 535–540.
Water Research Foundation (WRF). (2010). “Project snapshot: Joint front range climate change vulnerability study #4205.” 〈http://www.waterresearchfoundation.org/research/TopicsAndProjects/projectSnapshot.aspx?pn=4205〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA). (2008). “Real options and urban water resource planning in Australia.”, Melbourne, Australia.
Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA). (2011). “Productivity commission submission cover sheet.” Water Services Association of Australia, 〈https://www.wsaa.asn.au/About/News/Documents/20101108%20WSAA%20Submission%20Productivity%20Commision%20Inquiry.pdf〉 (Aug. 28, 2010).
Weisheimer, A.,et al. (2009). “ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs.” Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711.
Yates, D., Gangopadhyay, S., Rajagopalan, B., and Strzepek, K. (2003). “A technique for generating regional climate scenarios using a nearest neighbor algorithm.” Water Resour. Res., 39(7), 1199.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 28, 2010
Accepted: Aug 11, 2011
Published online: Aug 15, 2012
Published in print: Sep 1, 2012
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.