Statistical and Dynamical Climate Predictions to Guide Water Resources in Ethiopia
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138, Issue 3
Abstract
Climate predictions with lead times of one season or more often provide prospects for exploiting climate-related risks and opportunities. This motivates the evaluation of precipitation prediction techniques from statistical and dynamical models, and their combination, to potentially augment prediction skill over the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. This work considers to what degree greater skill or reliability in a particular prediction technique translates through hydropower management models given their nonlinear response. One hundred precipitation series from 1981–2000 are generated to compare prediction techniques. The linked multimodel ensemble climate forecast/hydropower system proves superior to the statistical and dynamical prediction technique linked systems across a range of metrics. This includes an expected increase in annual benefits by $4–5–million on average. The climate forecast/hydropower system is sufficiently flexible to allow water managers to attain an optimal balance between benefits and the dependability of energy delivery by varying exceedance probability and target energy thresholds, with the added benefit of forecast guidance. Ideally this provides decision makers with incentives to integrate improved prediction techniques into sectoral management models, and further justifies expanding efforts into climate forecast improvement.
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Acknowledgments
This paper is funded by a grant / cooperative agreement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NA0OAR4311004. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies. Special thanks are given to Michael Tippet of IRI for his guidance and advice. The IRI data library was also instrumental for model analysis. Special recognition is also given for the comments and suggestions provided by the three anonymous reviewers.
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Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 138 • Issue 3 • May 2012
Pages: 287 - 298
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© 2012. American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Sep 30, 2010
Accepted: Aug 1, 2011
Published online: Aug 6, 2011
Published in print: May 1, 2012
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