Probabilistic Analysis of Transient Design for Water Supply Systems
Publication: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 136, Issue 6
Abstract
Systematic transient analysis in water supply systems is intended to determine the reliability of water supply and the integrity of hydraulic devices when hydraulic transients (i.e., water hammers) occur. In the analysis, parameters such as wavespeed, pipe diameter, friction, and others, usually considered as known inputs in traditional water hammer models, are actually subject to uncertainties due to natural or human behaviors. The paper considers these uncertainties and investigates their effects on the reliability of water transportation systems and water supply networks under transient conditions with or without protection devices. In addition, the optimization of transient protection devices is also evaluated based on the probabilistic analysis. The results show that the probabilistic analysis method could inspect the influence of the different input uncertainties on the system responses under transient conditions and provide detailed information on the design for water supply systems and protection devices. A one-dimensional water hammer model of pipe fluid systems and Monte Carlo simulation method are used in this investigation.
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Acknowledgments
The writers would like to thank the Hong Kong Research Grant Council for financial support under Project No. UNSPECIFIED620706.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume 136 • Issue 6 • November 2010
Pages: 678 - 687
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Aug 18, 2008
Accepted: Jan 19, 2010
Published online: Jan 25, 2010
Published in print: Nov 2010
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