Estimated Lifetimes of Road Pavements in Sweden Using Time-to-Event Analysis
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 140, Issue 11
Abstract
Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time-to-event analysis. The model is stratified according to traffic load and includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size, and climate zone. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime with a hazard ratio (risk of needing maintenance) estimated to be 36% lower than asphalt concrete. Among road types, roads had 22% higher hazard ratio than ordinary roads indicating significantly lower lifetimes. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life-cycle cost analysis and road management.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 140 • Issue 11 • November 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 27, 2013
Accepted: May 1, 2014
Published online: Jul 8, 2014
Published in print: Nov 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Dec 8, 2014
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