Identifying Precrash Factors for Cars and Trucks on Interstate Highways: Mixed Logit Model Approach
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 140, Issue 3
Abstract
This research investigates the factors that lead to three manners of collision (namely, rear-end, angle, and sideswipe) that occurred in the same direction of multilane interstate highways. Mixed logit (MXL) models were developed to estimate the probability of rear-end, angle, and sideswipe collisions as functions of vehicle-following attributes and other driving maneuvers immediately before collisions. The National Automotive Sampling System-General Estimates System crash data set, collected from 2005 to 2008, was used to estimate the model. This research analyzes collisions among passenger cars and trucks, with an emphasis on their vehicular characteristics. Results show that driving behavior is different when vehicular characteristics are different and when roles of the striking and struck vehicles are grouped according to cars and trucks. This research contributes to a better understanding of the differences in unsafe driving acts between cars and trucks, and implications on future policies on car and truck drivers.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Abdel-Aty, M. A., and Abdelwahab, H. T. (2003). “Configuration analysis of two-vehicle rear-end crashes.”, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 140–147.
Abdel-Aty, M., and Nawathe, P. (2006). “A novel approach for signalized intersection crash classification and prediction.” Adv. Transp. Stud., 9, 67–80.
Bhat, C. R. (2001). “Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model.” Transp. Res., Part B: Methodol., 35(7), 677–693.
Chen, F., and Chen, S. (2011). “Injury severities of truck drivers in single- and multi-vehicle accidents on rural highways.” Acc. Anal. Prev., 43(5), 1677–1688.
Council, F. M., Harkey, D., Nabors, D. T., and Mohamedshah, Y. M. (2003). “Examination of ‘fault,’ ‘unsafe driving acts,’ and ‘total harm’ in car-truck collisions.”, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 63–71.
Duncan, C. S., Khattak, A. J., Planning, R., and Hill, C. (1998). “Applying the ordered probit model to injury severity in truck–passenger car rear-end collisions.”, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 63–71.
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). (2011a). “Large truck and bus crash facts 2009.”, Washington, DC.
Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). (2011b). “Commercial motor vehicle facts.” 〈http://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/facts-research/facts-figures/analysisstatistics/cmvfacts.htm〉 (Dec. 19, 2012).
Greene, W. H. (2007). NLOGIT Version 4.0 reference guide limdep, Econometric Software Inc., New York.
Herbel, S., Laing, L. L., and McGovern, C. (2010). Highway safety improvement program (HSIP) manual, Cambridge Systematics, Chicago, IL.
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). (2009). “Fatality facts 2009.” 〈http://www.iihs.org/research/fatality_facts_2009/largetrucks.html〉 (May 30, 2012).
Islam, M. B., and Hernandez, S. (2012). “Large truck involved crashes: An exploratory injury severity analysis.” Proc. 91st Ann. Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Jones, S., and Hensher, D. A. (2007). “Evaluating the behavioural performance of alternative logit models: An application to corporate takeovers research.” J. Bus. Fin. Acc., 34(7–8), 1193–1220.
Keller, J., Abdel-Aty, M., and Brady, P. A. (2006). “Type of collision and crash data evaluation at signalized intersections.” Inst. Trans. Eng. J., 76(2), 30–39.
Kim, D.-G., Lee, Y., Washington, S., and Choi, K. (2007). “Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models.” Acc. Anal. Prev., 39(1), 125–134.
Knipling, R. R. (2013). “Car-truck crashes in the national motor vehicle causation study. “Proc. 92nd Ann. Meeting, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC.
Milton, J. C., Shankar, V. N., and Mannering, F. L. (2008). “Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: An exploratory empirical analysis.” Acc. Anal. and Prev., 40(1), 260–266.
Morgan, A., and Mannering, F. L. (2011). “The effects of road-surface conditions, age, and gender on driver-injury severities.” Acc. Anal. Prev., 43(5), 1852–1863.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). (2005). National automotive sampling (NASS) general estimates system (GES) analytical user’s manual, Washington, DC.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). (2010). 2009 FARS coding and validation manual, Washington, DC.
RITA. (2010). “Transportation accident by mode.” 〈http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_03.html〉 (Dec. 18, 2012).
Savolainen, P. T., Mannering, F. L., Lord, D., and Quddus, M. A. (2011). “The statistical analysis of highway crash-injury severities: a review and assessment of methodological alternatives.” Acc. Anal. Prev., 43(5), 1666–1676.
Statistical Analysis System (SAS). (2004). What’s new in SAS 9.0, 9.1, 9.1.2, and 9.1.3, Cary, NJ.
Washington, S., Karlaftis, M. G., and Mannering, F. L. (2011). Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis, Chapman & Hall/CRC, New York, 375–385.
Yan, X., Radwan, E., and Mannila, K. (2009). “Analysis of truck-involved rear-end crashes using multinomial logistic regression.” Adv. Transp. Stud.: Intl. J., 17(1), 39–52.
Ye, X., Pendyala, R. M., Washington, S. P., Konduri, K., and Oh, J. (2009). “A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections.” Safety Sci., 47(3), 443–452.
Zaloshnja, E., Miller, T., Council, F., and Persaud, B. (2004). “Comprehensive and human capital crash costs by maximum police-reported injury severity.” Proc., 48th Assoc. Adv.f Automot. Med., The Association, Des Plaines, IL, 251–263.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 140 • Issue 3 • March 2014
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 25, 2013
Accepted: Aug 26, 2013
Published online: Aug 28, 2013
Published in print: Mar 1, 2014
Discussion open until: May 9, 2014
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.