Development and Evaluation of Methods for Constructing Breakdown Probability Models
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 9
Abstract
The term breakdown of flow at a freeway bottleneck location has been used to describe the transition from relatively free-flowing traffic to congestion, often called stop-and-go traffic, but more generally experienced as slow-and-go. The focus of the research presented in this paper was to develop probabilistic models to predict breakdown of flow by using data from five freeway-ramp merging segments. The development of the probabilistic models allows exploration of several issues: the identification of breakdown, the performance measures for the identification of the breakdown, and the breakdown location. The breakdown probability model (BPM) is based on lifetime data analysis statistics. The breakdown probability models can be very useful tools in establishing capacity values, which in turn can be part of the freeway traffic management process.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program, NCHRP 3-87: Proactive Ramp Management Under the Threat of Freeway Flow Breakdown. The authors would like to thank the NCHRP 3-87 panel for their input throughout this project. The authors would also like to thank David Tsui and Phil Masters of the Ontario Ministry of Transportation (MTO), Simon Foo and Baher Abdulhai of the University of Toronto, and John Hourdos of the University of Minnesota for their assistance with data gathering. The contents of this paper reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 9 • September 2013
Pages: 931 - 940
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 29, 2012
Accepted: May 13, 2013
Published online: May 15, 2013
Published in print: Sep 1, 2013
Discussion open until: Oct 15, 2013
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