Study of Modal Shifts to Bus Rapid Transit in Chinese Cities
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 5
Abstract
This paper applies a binary logistic analysis method for assessing impacts of modal shifts from automobiles, normal buses, and nonmotorized vehicles caused by bus rapid transit (BRT) deployments using survey data collected on six representative BRT corridors in China. The traveler’s demographic and socioeconomic attributes (gender, age) and trip-related attributes (trip purpose, travel time savings, trip costs, trip distances, and weekly travel frequencies) are found to be statistically significant in influencing modal shifts to BRT. Ridership characteristics and preferences are found to vary significantly by BRT corridor based on travel mode, demographics, socioeconomic status, and the perceived benefits in travel time and trip costs, suggesting that BRT deployment strategies must recognize the heterogeneous nature of ridership and travel preferences. The probability of modal shifts to BRT could reach up to 15% for travel time savings of 10 min and then increase steadily for a greater extent of travel time savings. For relatively long trip distances greater than 5 km and high weekly trip frequencies greater than 10 trips, all other things being equal, the probability of modal shifts to BRT could reach 13–57% and 9–55%, respectively. The findings are consistent with some notable studies conducted in other countries.
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Acknowledgments
This study was funded by the Reason Foundation as part of the Robert W. Galvin Mobility Initiative (GMI) China Project. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of China National Science Foundation Project No. 51178055/E0807, Ministry of Science and Technology’s Transportation Construction Project No. 20113182211210, and Ministry of Transportation’s Science and Technology Project No. 2011318223710.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 5 • May 2013
Pages: 515 - 523
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 27, 2012
Accepted: Nov 14, 2012
Published online: Nov 17, 2012
Published in print: May 1, 2013
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