Research on a Short-Range Prediction Model for Track Irregularity over Small Track Lengths
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 12
Abstract
Based on analysis of some existing prediction methods and models for track irregularities, according to the characteristics of track irregularity development for China railroad, this paper has proposed a short-range prediction model (SRPM) which applies the calculus thinking and method to estimate track irregularities over small track lengths on a single-day basis using track waveform data generated by track geometry car. We applied the SRPM to make predictions for track irregularities of many unit track sections of the up-going tacks of Beijing-Shanghai Railway Line (Jing-Hu Line) using the past two-year waveform data of this railway line. To confirm the efficiency of the SRPM, we compared the actual and estimated irregularities in both time and railway distance dimensions. The comparison shows that the SRPM can accurately predict track irregularities of unit track sections along Jing-Hu Railway Line on each day within a future short period.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Chen, X. M., Wang, L., Yang, F. C., Cai, X. S., and Wu, W. Q. (2006). “Integrating factor method for predicting the developing trend of railway track irregularity.” China Railway Science, 27(6), 27–30 (in Chinese).
Kawaguchi, M. M., and Terada, K. (2005). “Actual data analysis of alignment irregularity growth and its prediction model.” Quarterly Report of RTRI, 46(4), 262–268.
Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China. (2006). Railway line maintenance regulations, China Railway, Beijing.
Ministry of Railways of the People’s Republic of China. (2007). Regulations on existing speed-raised railway line and bridge facilities with the allowable speed between 200 and 250 km/h, China Railway, Beijing.
Wang, J. X., Li, H. F., and Xu, Y. D. (2008). “Evaluation and prediction method for railway track geometric state based on probability distribution change.” China Railway Science, 29(5), 31–34 (in Chinese).
Xu, P. (2009). Research on the characteristics of the track dynamic irregularity in railway line, M.D., P.R. China, Beijing Jiaotong Univ., Beijing.
Xu, Y. D., Li, H. F., and Zhou, Y. (2003). “Forecast methods for track longitudinal level irregularity.” Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 31(3), 291–295.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: Oct 2, 2009
Accepted: Jun 18, 2010
Published online: Jun 21, 2010
Published in print: Dec 2010
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.