Speed Prediction Models for Multilane Highways: Simultaneous Equations Approach
Publication: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 136, Issue 10
Abstract
Past speed-related research has focused on the operational effects of roadway geometrics along rural two-lane highways using ordinary least-squares regression models. More recent research has focused on the association of traffic flow characteristics on vehicle operating speeds along multilane, limited access highways using a simultaneous equations approach. Few research studies, however, have been conducted to determine the combined association between various geometric design features and traffic flow on operating speeds along multilane highways. This research considers both geometric design and traffic flow parameters, in a simultaneous equations framework, to model the mean operating speed and speed deviation on four-lane highways (two lanes in each direction). Models for both left- and right-lane mean speeds and speed deviations were estimated. The three-stage least-squares estimator was used to investigate the possible endogeneity of mean speed and speed deviation in the system of equations and to account for the contemporaneous correlation between the disturbances across the equations. The results indicate that different geometric design features are associated with mean speed and speed deviation in the left- and right-lane models. As such, it is recommended that future multilane highway speed models consider using a simultaneous equations framework.
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Acknowledgments
The data collection for this research was funded through the Federal Highway Administration Office of Safety. The writers acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Richard Porter and Dr. Kevin Mahoney in collecting the speed data. Additionally, the North Carolina Department of Transportation and Ferguson Township in Pennsylvania are acknowledged for their assistance in the field data collection process, and for providing the record drawings used to obtain the geometric features present along the study sections. The writers also acknowledge the modeling insights provided by Dr. Venky Shankar of Penn State University as a member of the lead author’s thesis committee.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Transportation Engineering
Volume 136 • Issue 10 • October 2010
Pages: 855 - 862
Copyright
© 2010 ASCE.
History
Received: May 19, 2008
Accepted: Jan 20, 2010
Published online: Sep 15, 2010
Published in print: Oct 2010
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