Probabilistic Prediction of Postdisaster Functionality Loss of Community Building Portfolios Considering Utility Disruptions
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 144, Issue 4
Abstract
This study proposes a framework for the probabilistic prediction of building portfolio functionality loss (BPFL) in a community following an earthquake hazard. Building functionality is jointly affected by both the structural integrity of the building itself and the availability of critical utilities. To this end, the framework incorporates three analyses for a given earthquake scenario: (1) evaluation of the spatial distribution of physical damages to both buildings and utility infrastructure; (2) computation of utility disruptions deriving from the cascading failures occurring in interdependent utility networks; and (3) by integrating the results from the first two analyses, making a probabilistic prediction of the postevent functionality loss of building portfolios at the community scale. The framework couples the functionality analyses of physical systems of distinct topologies and hazard response characteristics in a consistent spatial scale, providing a rich array of information for community hazard mitigation and resilience planning. An implementation of the BPFL framework is illustrated using the residential building portfolio in Shelby County, Tennessee, subjected to an earthquake hazard.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The research reported herein was supported, in part, by the Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, funded by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) under Cooperative Agreement No. 70NANB15H044. This support is gratefully acknowledged. The authors also thank Dr. Leonard Duenas Osorio at Rice University for his helpful advice at early stage of this study. The views expressed are those of the authors, and may not represent the official position of the NIST.
References
Adachi, T., and Ellingwood, B. R. (2008). “Serviceability of earthquake-damaged water systems: Effects of electrical power availability and power backup systems on system vulnerability.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 93(1), 78–88.
Almufti, I., and Willford, M. (2013). REDiTM rating system: Resilience-based earthquake design initiative for the next generation of buildings, ARUP Co., London.
Atkinson, G. M., and Boore, D. M. (1995). “Ground-motion relations for eastern North America.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 85(1), 17–30.
Atkinson, G. M., and Boore, D. M. (2006). “Earthquake ground-motion prediction equations for eastern North America.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96(6), 2181–2205.
Bocchini, P., and Frangopol, D. M. (2012). “Restoration of bridge networks after an earthquake: Multicriteria intervention optimization.” Earthquake Spectra, 28(2), 426–455.
Bruneau, M., et al. (2003). “A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra, 19(4), 733–752.
Building Seismic Safety Council. (2003). “The 2003 NEHRP recommended provisions for new buildings and other structures. Part 1: Provisions.”, Washington, DC.
Campbell, K. W. (2003). “Prediction of strong ground motion using the hybrid empirical method and its use in the development of ground-motion (attenuation) relations in eastern North America.” Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 93(3), 1012–1033.
Chang, S. E., and Shinozuka, M. (2004). “Measuring improvements in the disaster resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra, 20(3), 739–755.
CPLEX [Computer software]. IBM, New York.
Dudenhoeffer, D. D., May, R. P., and Milos, M. (2006). “CIMS: A framework for infrastructure interdependency modeling and analysis.” Proc., 38th Conf. on Winter Simulation, L. F. Perrone, F. P. Wieland, J. Liu, B. G. Lawson, D. M. Nicol, and R. M. Fujimoto, eds., IEEE, New York, 478–485.
Dueñas-Osorio, L., Craig, J. I., Goodno, B. J., and Bostrom, A. (2007). “Interdependent response of networked systems.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 185–194.
FEMA/NIBS (National Institute of Building Sciences). (2003). Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology earthquake model (HAZUS-MH MR4): Technical manual, Washington, DC.
Goda, K., and Hong, H. P. (2008). “Estimation of seismic loss for spatially distributed buildings.” Earthquake Spectra, 24(4), 889–910.
González, A. D., Dueñas-Osorio, L., Sánchez-Silva, M., and Medaglia, A. L. (2016). “The interdependent network design problem for optimal infrastructure system restoration.” Comput.-Aided Civil Infrastruct. Eng., 31(5), 334–350.
Gurobi [Computer software]. Gurobi Optimization, Houston.
Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J. R., Crowther, K., and Lian, C. (2005a). “Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. II: Case studies.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 80–92.
Haimes, Y. Y., Horowitz, B. M., Lambert, J. H., Santos, J. R., Lian, C., and Crowther, K. G. (2005b). “Inoperability input-output model for interdependent infrastructure sectors. I: Theory and methodology.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 67–79.
Haimes, Y. Y., and Jiang, P. (2001). “Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 1–12.
IN-CORE. (2017). “Innovative software and data analysis.” ⟨⟩ (Oct. 1, 2017).
Jayaram, N., and Baker, J. W. (2009). “Correlation model for spatially distributed ground-motion intensities.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn. 38(15), 1687–1708.
Lee, E. E., Mitchell, J. E., and Wallace, W. A. (2007). “Restoration of services in interdependent infrastructure systems: A network flows approach.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. Part C Appl. Rev., 37(6), 1303–1317.
Lin, P., and Wang, N. (2016). “Building portfolio fragility functions to support scalable community resilience assessment.” Sustainable Resilient Infrastruct., 1(3–4), 108–122.
Lin, P., and Wang, N. (2017a). “Stochastic post-disaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios. I: Modeling.” Struct. Saf., 69, 96–105.
Lin, P., and Wang, N. (2017b). “Stochastic post-disaster functionality recovery of community building portfolios. II: Application.” Struct. Saf., 69, 106–117.
Lounis, Z., and McAllister, T. P. (2016). “Risk-based decision making for sustainable and resilient infrastructure systems.” J. Struct. Eng., F4016005.
Luiijf, E., Nieuwenhuijs, A., Klaver, M., van Eeten, M., and Cruz, E. (2008). “Empirical findings on critical infrastructure dependencies in Europe.” Int. Workshop on Critical Information Infrastructures Security, Springer, Berlin, 302–310.
Mendonça, D., and Wallace, W. A. (2006). “Impacts of the 2001 World Trade Center attack on New York City critical infrastructures.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 260–270.
NIST. (2015). Community resilience planning guide for buildings and infrastructure systems, Vols. 1 and 2, Gaithersburg, MD.
Oaks, D. S. (1990). “The damage assessment process: The application of ATC-20.” The Loma Prieta earthquake, studies of short-term impacts, Institute of Behavioral Science, Boulder, CO.
OSSPAC (Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission). (2013). “The Oregon resilience plan: Reducing risk and improving recovery for the next Cascadia earthquake and tsunami.”, Salem, OR.
Ouyang, M. (2014). “Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 121, 43–60.
Ouyang, M., and Dueñas-Osorio, L. (2011). “An approach to design interface topologies across interdependent urban infrastructure systems.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 96(11), 1462–1473.
Poland, C. D. (2013). “Roundtable on standards for disaster resilience for buildings and infrastructure systems.” SPUR resilient city goals, SPUR, San Francisco.
Rinaldi, S. M., James, P. P., and Terrence, K. K. (2001). “Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies.” IEEE Control Syst., 21(6), 11–25.
Santos, J. R., and Haimes, Y. Y. (2004). “Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.” Risk Anal., 24(6), 1437–1451.
Shinozuka, M., Dong, X., Chen, T. C., and Jin, X. (2007). “Seismic performance of electric transmission network under component failures.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 36(2), 227–244.
Steelman, J., Song, J., and Hajjar, J. (2007). “Integrated data flow and risk aggregation for consequence-based risk management of seismic regional loss.”, Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL.
Trucco, P., Cagno, E., and De Ambroggi, M. (2012). “Dynamic functional modelling of vulnerability and interoperability of critical infrastructures.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 105, 51–63.
U.S. Geological Survey. (2017). “Seismic hazard maps and site: Specific data.” ⟨⟩ (Oct. 4, 2017).
Utne, I. B., Hokstad, P., and Vatn, J. (2011). “A method for risk modeling of interdependencies in critical infrastructures.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 96(6), 671–678.
Wang, M., and Takada, T. (2005). “Macrospatial correlation model of seismic ground motions.” Earthquake Spectra, 21(4), 1137–1156.
Xu, W., Hong, L., He, L., Wang, S., and Chen, X. (2011). “Supply-driven dynamic inoperability input-output price model for interdependent infrastructure systems.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 151–162.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 2, 2016
Accepted: Sep 7, 2017
Published online: Jan 19, 2018
Published in print: Apr 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Jun 19, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.