Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty for Creep Models under Varying Stresses
Publication: Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 6
Abstract
The prediction of creep deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research. Several different creep models have been developed. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses; thus, in the case of varying stresses, a specific time integration is necessary. Currently, when modeling concrete creep, the engineering focus is on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods rather than choosing more appropriate creep models or considering the scatter of input parameters. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models, from the time-integration methods, and from input parameter uncertainty. By adapting variance-based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of different sources of uncertainty. By application of the developed method, it is determined that selecting more appropriate creep models is of higher importance than choosing sophisticated time-integration methods.
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Acknowledgment
This research is supported by the German Research Institute (DFG) via Research Training Group “Evaluation of Coupled Numerical Partial Models in Structural Engineering (GRK 1462),” which is gratefully acknowledged by the writers.
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Information
Published In
Journal of Structural Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 6 • June 2013
Pages: 949 - 956
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 19, 2012
Accepted: Aug 30, 2012
Published online: May 15, 2013
Published in print: Jun 1, 2013
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