General Model for Water-Distribution Pipe Breaks: Development, Methodology, and Application to a Small City in Quebec, Canada
Publication: Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice
Volume 5, Issue 1
Abstract
To model water-pipe breaks a generalization is proposed of an approach where a Weibull exponential model was used for simulation. In this study, a generalization of this approach was performed by developing a general model using three or more probability distributions to describe the time of occurrence of a pipe’s failure. The previous two-distribution model constitutes a special case of this new general model. In addition, explanatory variables were incorporated into the proposed model. Finally, from the proposed general model, the Weibull-exponential-exponential (WEE) model was derived to model water-distribution pipe breaks in a small city in Canada.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
This research was funded by the Canadian and Quebec governments via the Municipal Rural Infrastructure Fund and by the City of Quebec. The authors greatly acknowledge the support of these organizations. The authors also thank the Canadian cities who provided the data used in this study, not named here for confidentiality reasons.
References
Alvisi, S., and Franchini, M. (2010). “Comparative analysis of two probabilistic pipe breakage models applied to a real water distribution system.” Civ. Eng. Environ. Syst., 27(1), 1–22.
Andreou, S. A., Marks, D. H., and Clark, R. M. (1987). “A new methodology for modelling break failure patterns in deteriorating water distribution systems: Theory.” Adv. Water Resour., 10(1), 2–10.
Berardi, L., Giustolisi, O., Kapelan, Z., and Savic, D. A. (2008). “Development of pipe deterioration models for water distribution systems using EPR.” J. Hydroinform., 10(2), 113–126.
Clark, R. M., and Goodrich, J. A. (1989). “Developing a data base on infrastructure needs.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 81(7), 81–87.
Clark, R. M., Stafford, C. M., and Goodrich, J. A. (1982). “Water distribution systems: A spatial and cost evaluation.” J. Water Resour. Plng. Mgmt. Div., 108(3), 243–256.
Davis, P., Silva, D. D., Marlow, D., Moglia, M., Gould, S., and Burn, S. (2008). “Failure prediction and optimal scheduling of replacements in asbestos cement water pipes.” J Water Supply Res. Technol., 57(4), 239–252.
Duchesne, S., et al. (2011). “Modélisation des bris d’aqueduc et analyse des résultats pour la Ville de Québec.”, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique—Eau Terre Environnement, Québec, QC, Canada (in French).
Duckstein, L., and Parent, E. (1994). “Systems engineering of natural resources under changing physical conditions: A framework for reliability and risk.” Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management, L. Duckstein and E. Parent, eds., Kluwer Academic, Netherlands, 5–19.
Eisenbeis, P. (1994). “Modélisation statistique de la prévision des défaillances sur les conduites d’eau potable.” Ph.D. thesis, Univ. Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, France (in French).
Germanopoulos, G., Jowitt, P. W., and Lumbers, J. P. (1986). “Assessing the reliability of supply and level of service for water distribution systems.” Proc., of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Part 1, Vol. 80, 413–428.
Goulter, I., Davidson, J., and Jacobs, P. (1993). “Predicting water-Main Breakage Rates.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 119(4), 419–436.
Goulter, I., and Kazemi, A. (1988). “Spatial and temporal groupings of water main pipe breakage in Winnipeg.” Can. Civ. Eng., 15(1), 91–97.
Goulter, I., and Kazemi, A. (1989). “Analysis of water distribution pipe failure types in Winnipeg, Canada.” J. Transp. Eng., 115(2), 95–111.
Jowitt, P. W., and Xu, C. (1993). “Predicting pipe failure effects in water distribution networks.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 119(1), 18–31.
Kalbfleisch, J. D., and Prentice, R. L. (2003). The statistical analysis of failure time data, Wiley, New York.
Kanakoudis, V. (2004). “Vulnerability based management of water resources systems.” J. Hydroinform., 6(2), 133–156.
Kanakoudis, V., and Tolikas, D. (2001). “The role of leaks and breaks in water networks – Technical and economical solutions.” J Water Supply Res. Technol., 50(5), 301–311.
Kanakoudis, V., and Tolikas, D. (2004). “Assessing the performance level of a water system.” J. Water Air Soil Pollut., 4(4–5), 307–318.
Kanakoudis, V., and Tsitsifli, S. (2011). “Water pipe network reliability assessment using the DAC method.” Desalin. Water Treat., 33(1–3), 97–106.
Kleiner, Y., and Rajani, B. (2001). “Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: statistical models.” Urban Water, 3, 131–150.
Kleiner, Y., Nafi, A., and Rajani, B. B. (2010). “Planning renewal of water mains while considering deterioration, economies of scale and adjacent infrastructure.” Water Sci. Tech. Water Supply, 10(6), 897–906.
Kretzman, H. A., and van Zyl, J. E. (2004). “Stochastic analysis of water distribution systems.” Proc., Critical Transitions in Water and Environmental Resources Management, G. Sehlke, D. F. Hayes, and D. K. Stevens, eds., ASCE Environmental and Water Resources Institute, Reston, VA, 4623–4632.
Le Gat, Y., and Eisenbeis, P. (2000). “Using maintenance records to forecast failures in water networks.” Urban Water, 2(3), 173–181.
Mailhot, A., Pelletier, G., Noel, J. F., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2000). “Modeling the evolution of the structural state of water pipe networks with brief recorded pipe break histories: Methodology and application.” Water Resour. Res., 36(10), 3053–3062.
Mailhot, A., Poulin, A., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2003). “Optimal replacement of water pipes.” Water Resour. Res., 39(5), 1–14.
Pelletier, G. (2000). “Impact du remplacement des conduites d’aqueduc sur le nombre annuel de bris.” Ph.D. thesis, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sainte-Foy, Québec, Canada (in French).
Pelletier, G., Mailhot, A., and Villeneuve, J. P. (2003). “Modeling water pipe breaks—Three case studies.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 129(2), 115–123.
Rajani, B., and Kleiner, Y. (2001). “Comprehensive review of structural deterioration of water mains: Physically based models.” Urban Water, 3(3), 151–164.
Schock, M. R. (1990). “Internal corrosion and deposition control.” Water Quality and Treatment, 4th Ed., McGraw-Hill, New York.
Tsitsifli, S., and Kanakoudis, V. (2010). “Predicting the behavior of a network pipe using the “critical z-score” as its performance indicator.” Desalination, 250(1), 258–265.
Tsitsifli, S., Kanakoudis, V., and Bakouros, I. (2011). “Pipe networks risk assessment based on survival analysis.” Water Resour. Manage., 25(14), 3729–3746.
Vanrenterghem-Raven, A. (2006). “Water pipes asset management: Evaluation of EU CARE-W.” Proc., Water Distribution Systems Analysis Symp., ASCE, 1–13.
Villeneuve, J.-P., Duchesne, S., Mailhot, A., Musso, E., and Pelletier, G. (1998). “Évaluation des besoins des municipalités québécoises en réfection et construction d’infrastructures d’eaux.” Rapport Final No., Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sainte-Foy, QC, Canada (in French).
Walski, T., and Peliccia, A. (1982). “Economic analysis of water main breaks.” J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 74(3), 140–147.
Wang, Y., Zayed, T., and Moselhi, O. (2009). “Prediction models for annual break rates of water mains.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 23(1), 47–54.
Yamijala, S., Guikema, S. D., and Brumbelow, K. (2009). “Statistical models for the analysis of water distribution system pipe break data.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safe., 94(2), 282–293.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 27, 2012
Accepted: Dec 27, 2012
Published online: Dec 29, 2012
Discussion open until: Jan 20, 2014
Published in print: Feb 1, 2014
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.