Technical Papers
Dec 14, 2021

Managed Retreat in the Face of Climate Change: Examining Factors Influencing Buyouts of Floodplain Properties

Publication: Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23, Issue 1

Abstract

Managed retreat from hazardous areas is a long-term strategy for mitigating natural disaster risks and adapting to climate change. In the United States, managed retreat is often sponsored by governments through acquiring properties in the aftermath of a major disaster event. This study empirically examined the institutional factors that influence government buyouts of floodplain properties across US counties, with a particular focus on local fiscal conditions and existing flood management practices. The empirical analysis drew on a nationwide panel data set of buyout projects funded through the federal Hazard Mitigation Grant Program over the period 1990–2016. Using a double-hurdle model, the authors found that counties with more property tax revenues and a lower fiscal reliance on property taxes have more postflood buyouts. Results also indicate a negative impact of flood insurance take-up rates and levee protection on a county’s buyouts of flood-prone properties. These findings shed new light on the challenges for government buyouts and possible conflicts among different policy instruments in flood risk management.

Get full access to this article

View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.

Data Availability Statement

All data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

References

Allison, P. D., and R. P. Waterman. 2002. “Fixed-effects negative binomial regression models.” Sociological Methodol. 32 (1): 247–265. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9531.00117.
Bagstad, K. J., K. Stapleton, and J. R. D’Agostino. 2007. “Taxes, subsidies, and insurance as drivers of United States coastal development.” Ecol. Econ. 63 (2–3): 285–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.09.019.
BenDor, T. K., D. Salvese, C. Kamrath, and B. Ganser. 2020. “Floodplain buyouts and municipal finance.” Nat. Hazard. Rev. 21 (3): 04020020. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000380.
Binder, S. B., C. K. Baker, and J. P. Barile. 2015. “Rebuild or relocate? Resilience and post disaster decision-making after Hurricane Sandy.” Am. J. Community Psychol. 56 (1): 180–196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-015-9727-x.
Binder, S. B., and A. Greer. 2016. “The devil is in the details: Linking home buyout policy, practice, and experience after Hurricane Sandy.” Politics Governance 4 (4): 97–106. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i4.738.
Boustan, L. P., M. E. Kahn, and P. W. Rhode. 2012. “Moving to higher ground: Migration response to natural disasters in the early twentieth century.” Am. Econ. Rev. 102 (3): 238–244. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.3.238.
Browne, M. J., C. A. Dehring, D. L. Eckles, and W. D. Lastrapes. 2018. “Does national flood insurance program participation induce housing development.” J. Risk Insur. 86 (4): 835–859. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12240.
Burby, R. J. 2006. “Hurricane katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: Bringing about wise governmental decisions for hazardous areas.” Ann. Am. Acad. Political Social Sci. 604 (1): 171–191.
Burke, W. J. 2009. “Fitting and interpreting Cragg’s tobit alternative using Stata.” Stata J. 9 (4): 584–592. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900405.
Cameron, A. C., and P. K. Trivedi. 2005. Microeconometrics: Methods and applications. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Cameron, A. C., and P. K. Trivedi. 2010. Microeconometrics using Stata. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Carter, N. T., D. P. Horn, E. Boyd, E. Lipiec, M. Stubbs, J. L. Ramseur, and A. E. Normand. 2019. Flood resilience and risk reduction: Federal assistance and programs. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
Cragg, J. G. 1971. “Some statistical models for limited dependent variables with application to the demand for durable goods.” Econometrica 39 (5): 829–844. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909582.
Craig, R. K. 2019. “Coastal adaptation, government-subsidized insurance, and perverse incentive to stay.” Clim. Change 152 (2): 215–226. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2203-5.
Crowell, M., K. Coulton, C. Johnson, J. Westcott, D. Bellomo, S. Edelman, and E. Hirsch. 2010. “An estimate of the U.S. population living in 100-year coastal flood hazard areas.” J. Coastal Res. 262 (2): 201–211. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-09-00076.1.
CRS (Congressional Research Service). 2021. “Introduction to the National Flood Insurance Program.” Accessed February 1, 2021. https://crsreports.congress.gov.
Davlasheridze, M., and Q. Miao. 2019. “Does governmental assistance affect private decisions to insure? An empirical analysis of flood insurance purchases.” Land Econ. 95 (1): 124–145. https://doi.org/10.3368/le.95.1.124.
de Vries, D. H., and J. C. Fraser. 2012. “Citizenship rights and voluntary decision making in post-disaster U.S. floodplain buyout mitigation programs.” Int. J. Mass Emerg. Disasters 30: 1–33.
Elliott, J., P. L. Brown, and K. Loughran. 2020. “Racial inequalities in the federal buyout of flood-prone homes: A nationwide assessment of environmental adaptation.” Socius: Sociological Res. Dyn. World 6: 237802312090543. https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023120905439.
Ferreira, S., K. Hamilton, and J. R. Vincent. 2013. “Does development reduce fatalities from natural disasters? New evidence for floods.” Environ. Dev. Econ. 18 (6): 649–679. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X13000387.
Fraser, J. C., M. W. Doyle, and H. Young. 2006. “Creating effective flood mitigation policies.” Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 87 (27): 265–270. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006EO270002.
Fraser, J. C., R. Elmore, D. D. Godschalk, and W. Rohe. 2003. Implementing floodplain land acquisition programs in urban localities. Chapel Hill, NC: University North Carolina.
Freudenberg, R., E. Calvin, L. Tolkoff, and D. Brewley. 2016. Buy-in for buyouts. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Gallagher, J. 2014. “Learning about an infrequent event: Evidence from flood insurance take-up in the United States.” Am. Econ. J. Appl. Econ. 6 (3): 206–233. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.6.3.206.
GAO (Government Accountability Office). 2015. “Flood insurance. Status of FEMA’s implementation of Biggert-Waters Act as amended. Washington, DC: GAO.
Greer, A., and S. B. Binder. 2016. “A historical assessment of home buyout policy: Are we learning or just failing?” Hous. Policy Debate 27 (3): 372–392. https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.2016.1245209.
Hutton, N. S., G. A. Tobin, and B. E. Montz. 2019. “The levee effect revisited: Process and policies enabling development in Yuba County, California.” J. Flood Risk Manage. 12 (3): e12469. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12469.
Johnson, K. A., O. E. J. Wing, P. D. Bates, J. Fargione, T. Kroeger, W. D. Larson, C. C. Sampson, and A. M. Smith. 2019. “A benefit-cost analysis of floodplain land acquisition for US flood damage reduction.” Nat. Sustainability 3 (1): 56–62. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0437-5.
Kates, R. W., C. E. Colten, S. Laska, and S. P. Leatherman. 2006. “Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective.” Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 103 (40): 14653–14660. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605726103.
Kick, E. L., J. C. Fraser, G. M. Fulkerson, L. A. McKinney, and D. H. De Vries. 2011. “Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: An analysis with community-system policy implications.” Disasters 35 (3): 510–539. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2011.01226.x.
Kousky, C. 2014. “Managing shoreline retreat: A US perspective.” Clim. Change 124 (1): 9–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1106-3.
Kousky, C. 2019. “The role of natural disaster insurance in recovery and risk reduction.” Ann. Rev. Resour. Econ. 11: 399–418. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-100518-094028.
Lamond, J. E., D. G. Proverbs, and F. N. Hammond. 2009. “Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: Confusion, competition and complacency.” J. Risk Res. 12 (6): 825–841. https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870902768614.
Mach, K. J., C. M. Krann, M. Hino, A. R. Siders, E. M. Johnston, and C. B. Field. 2019. “Managed retreat through voluntary buyouts of flood-prone properties.” Sci. Adv. 5 (10): eaax8995. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax8995.
Marino, E. 2018. “Adaptation privilege and voluntary buyouts: Perspectives on ethnocentrism in sea level rise relocation and retreat policies in the US.” Global Environ. Change 49 (Mar): 10–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.01.002.
McGhee, D. J., S. B. Binder, and E. A. Albright. 2020. “First, do not harm: Evaluating the vulnerability reduction of post-disaster home buyout programs.” Nat. Hazard. Rev. 21 (1): 05019002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000337.
Miao, Q. 2018. “Are we adapting to floods? Evidence from global flooding fatalities.” Risk Anal. 39 (6): 1298–1313. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13245.
Miao, Q., and D. Popp. 2014. “Necessity of the mother of invention: Innovative responses to natural disasters.” J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 68 (2): 280–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2014.06.003.
Miao, Q., Y. Shi, and M. Davlasheridze. 2020. “Fiscal decentralization and natural disaster mitigation: Evidence from the United States.” Public Budgeting Finance 41 (1): 26–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12273.
Miao, Q., E. Welch, F. Zhang, and P. S. Sriraj. 2018. “What drives public transit organizations in the United States to adapt to extreme weather events?” J. Environ. Manage. 225 (Nov): 252–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.093.
NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council). 2017. Seeking higher ground: How to break the cycle of repeated flooding with climate-smart flood insurance reforms. New York: NRDC.
Ricker-Gilbert, J., T. S. Jayne, and E. Chirwa. 2011. “Subsidies and crowding out: A double-hurdle model of fertilizer demand in Malawi.” Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93 (1): 26–42. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaq122.
Siders, A. R. 2018. “Social justice implications of US managed retreat buyout programs.” Clim. Change 152 (2): 239–257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2272-5.
Siders, A. R., M. Hino, and K. J. Mach. 2019. “The case for strategic and managed climate retreat.” Science 365 (6455): 761–763. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax8346.
Stefanovic, I. L. 2003. “The contribution of philosophy to hazards assessment and decision making.” Nat. Hazards 28 (2–3): 229–247. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022965604958.
Tate, E., A. Strong, T. Kraus, and H. Xiong. 2016. “Flood recovery and property acquisition in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.” Iowa Nat. Hazard. 80 (3): 2055–2079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2060-8.
Weber, A., and R. Moore. 2019. Going under: Long wait times for post-flood buyouts leave homeowners underwater. New York: Natural Resources Defense Council.
Wing, O. E. J., N. Pinter, P. D. Bates, and C. Kousky. 2020. “New insights into US flood vulnerability revealed from flood insurance big data.” Nat. Commun. 11: 1444. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15264-2.
Wooldridge, J. M. 2002. Econometric analysis of cross-section and panel data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Zavar, E., and R. R. Hagelman. 2016. “Land use change on U.S. floodplain buyout sites, 1990-2000.” Disaster Prev. Manage. 25 (3): 360–374. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-01-2016-0021.

Information & Authors

Information

Published In

Go to Natural Hazards Review
Natural Hazards Review
Volume 23Issue 1February 2022

History

Received: Mar 22, 2021
Accepted: Sep 19, 2021
Published online: Dec 14, 2021
Published in print: Feb 1, 2022
Discussion open until: May 14, 2022

Permissions

Request permissions for this article.

Authors

Affiliations

Assistant Professor, Dept. of Public Policy, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY 14623 (corresponding author). Email: [email protected]
Meri Davlasheridze [email protected]
Assistant Professor, Dept. of Marine and Coastal Environmental Science, Texas A&M Univ. at Galveston, Galveston, TX 77553. Email: [email protected]

Metrics & Citations

Metrics

Citations

Download citation

If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.

Cited by

  • Fiscal Implications of Disasters and the Managed Retreat Thereafter: Evidence from Hurricane Sandy, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-2027, 25, 4, (2024).
  • Is flood mitigation funding distributed equitably? Evidence from coastal states in the southeastern United States, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10.1111/jfr3.12886, (2023).
  • Promoting Spatial Coordination in Flood Buyouts in the United States: Four Strategies and Four Challenges from the Economics of Land Preservation Literature, Natural Hazards Review, 10.1061/NHREFO.NHENG-1564, 24, 1, (2023).
  • Managed retreat and planned retreat: a systematic literature review, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 10.1098/rstb.2021.0129, 377, 1854, (2022).
  • Are managed retreat programs successful and just? A global mapping of success typologies, justice dimensions, and trade-offs, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102576, 76, (102576), (2022).
  • Public Investment in Hazard Mitigation: Effectiveness and the Role of Community Diversity, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 10.1007/s41885-022-00119-5, 7, 1, (33-92), (2022).

View Options

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Get Access

Access content

Please select your options to get access

Log in/Register Log in via your institution (Shibboleth)
ASCE Members: Please log in to see member pricing

Purchase

Save for later Information on ASCE Library Cards
ASCE Library Cards let you download journal articles, proceedings papers, and available book chapters across the entire ASCE Library platform. ASCE Library Cards remain active for 24 months or until all downloads are used. Note: This content will be debited as one download at time of checkout.

Terms of Use: ASCE Library Cards are for individual, personal use only. Reselling, republishing, or forwarding the materials to libraries or reading rooms is prohibited.
ASCE Library Card (5 downloads)
$105.00
Add to cart
ASCE Library Card (20 downloads)
$280.00
Add to cart
Buy Single Article
$35.00
Add to cart

Media

Figures

Other

Tables

Share

Share

Copy the content Link

Share with email

Email a colleague

Share