Statistical Analysis and Probabilistic Design Approach for Freeze–Thaw Performance of Ordinary Portland Cement Concrete

This paper features the development of a probabilistic model linking freeze–thaw (F-T) performance of concrete mixtures to their composition. A sensitivity analysis was performed on several concrete mixture parameters to identify the factors that have strong correlations with F-T resistance of concrete. The F-T performance level was defined as a discrete measure of the frost resistance of concrete. Finally, a new model to predict F-T damage incorporating the variability in concrete mix parameters (as selected from sensitivity analysis) was developed. This model was developed using only those data sets that contained the results of the relative dynamic modulus of elasticity (RDME) testing performed according to ASTM and AASHTO specifications. Concrete mixtures containing only ordinary portland cement (OPC) as the sole binder (i.e., mixtures that did not contain any supplementary cementitious materials) were considered. The reliability of the model was demonstrated using several examples of concrete mixtures of various compositions. Accordingly, this model provides the opportunity to optimize the concrete mix proportion for the required performance level of concrete under F-T exposure condition.