Probabilistic Analysis of the Degradation Evolution of Stone Wall Cladding Directly Adhered to the Substrate
Publication: Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 2
Abstract
Environmental factors directly affect a building’s performance and durability. They are particularly detrimental in the case of building envelope materials and systems because these tend to exhibit a large exposed area and relatively narrow thickness. Therefore, tools are needed to model degradation and provide an insight into its occurrence and its relationship with the environmental factors that have the worst effect. In this paper, the degradation of stone wall cladding directly adhered to the substrate is estimated based on the evaluation of the characteristics of 140 wall cladding systems inspected in Lisbon, Portugal. Because it is a complex phenomenon, a probabilistic analysis is developed using multinomial logistic regression. The analysis focuses on the environmental factors that most influence the overall degradation of the façades (condition level). Probabilistic patterns are thus obtained for the evolution over time of each condition level according to their exposure level to outdoor environmental conditions.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the ICIST Research Institute, IST, Technical University of Lisbon and of the FCT (Foundation for Science and Technology).
References
Balaras, C. A., Droutsa, K., Dascalaki, E., and Kontoyiannidis, S. (2005). “Deterioration of European apartment buildings.” Energy Build., 37(5), 515–527.
Bayaga, A. (2010). “Multinomial logistic regression: Usage and application in risk analysis.” J. Appl. Quant. Methods, 5(2), 288–297.
Brandt, E., and Rasmussen, M. (2002). “Assessment of building conditions.” Energy Build., 34(2), 121–125.
Chew, M. (2005). “Defect analysis in wet areas of buildings.” Constr. Build. Mater., 19(3), 165–173.
Choi, M., and Lee, G. (2010). “Decision tree for selecting retaining wall systems based on logistic regression analysis.” Autom. Constr., 19(7), 917–928.
Flores-Colen, I., and de Brito, J. (2003). “Premature stains in facades of recent buildings.” Proc. CIB/W87 2nd Int. Symp., LNEC, Lisbon, 311–320.
Flourentzou, F., Brandt, E., and Wetzel, C. (2000). “MEDIC—A method for predicting residual service life and refurbishment investment budgets.” Energy Build., 31(2), 167–170.
Freitas, V. P., Sousa, M., and Abrantes, V. (1999). “Survey of the durability of facades of 4000 dwellings in northern Portugal.” 8th DBMC, Int. Conf. on the Durability of Building Materials and Components, M. A., Lacasse, and D. J., Vanier, eds., National Research Council Canada, NRC Research Press, Ottawa, Canada, 1040–1050.
Gao, S., and Shen, J. (2007). “Asymptotic properties of a double penalized maximum likelihood estimator in logistic regression.” Stat. Probab. Lett., 77(9), 925–930.
Gaspar, P. (2009). “Service life of constructions. Development of a methodology to estimate the durability of construction elements, Application to renders in current buildings.” Ph.D. thesis in Engineering Sciences, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese).
Gaspar, P., and de Brito, J. (2005). “Mapping defect sensitivity in external mortar renders.” Constr. Build. Mater., 19(8), 571–578.
Gaspar, P. L., and de Brito, J. (2008a). “Minimum required performance level for rendered facades.” 11th DBMC, Int. Conf. on Durability of Building Materials and Components, A., Nil Türkeri, and S., Özkan, eds., Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, T24.
Gaspar, P. L., and de Brito, J. (2008b). “Quantifying environmental effects on cement-rendered facades: A comparison between different degradation indicators.” Build. Environ., 43(11), 1818–1828.
Haagenrud, S., Stordahl, P., Eriksson, B., Riks, E., Krigsvoll, G., and Garofolo, I. (2001). “System for maintenance management of historic (wooden) buildings (acronym: MMWood).”, The Norwegian Building Research Institute (NBI), Oslo.
Hosmer, D. W., and Lemeshow, S. (2000). Applied logistic regression, 2nd Ed., Wiley, New York.
Jernberg, P., Lacasse, M. A., Haagenrud, S. E., and Sjöström, C. (2004). “Guide and bibliography to service life and durability research for building materials and components.”, CIB W80/RILEM TC 140—TSL Committee on Service Life of Building Materials and Components, Rotterdam.
Kirkham, R. J., and Boussabaine, H. (2005). “Forecasting the residual service life of NHS hospital buildings: A stochastic approach.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 23(5), 521–529.
Lewis, K. N., Heckman, B. D., and Himawan, L. (2011). “Multinomial logistic regression analysis for differentiating 3 treatment outcome trajectory groups for headache-associated disability.” PAIN, 152(8), 1718–1726.
Ljung, L. (1987). System identification—Theory for the user, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Lourenço, P. B., Luso, E., and Almeida, M. G. (2006). “Defects and moisture problems in buildings from historical city centres: A case study in Portugal.” Build. Environ., 41(2), 223–234.
Maroco, J. (2007). Statistical analysis using SPSS, 3rd Ed., Sílabo Editions, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese).
Marteinsson, B., and Jónsson, B. (1999). “Overall survey of buildings—performance and maintenance.” 8th DBMC, Int. Conf. on the Durability of Building Materials and Components, M. A., Lacasse, and D. J., Vanier, eds., National Research Council Canada, NRC Research Press, Ottawa, Canada, 1634–1654.
Mayer, P. D., and Wornell, P. (1999). “Assessing the remaining service life of existing building components for insurance.” 8th DBMC, Conf. on Durability of Building Materials and Components, M. A., Lacasse, and D. J., Vanier, eds., National Research Council Canada, NRC Research Press, Ottawa, Canada, 1447–1456.
McCoach, D. B., and Siegle, D. (2003). “Factors that differentiate underachieving gifted students from high-achieving gifted students.” Gifted Child Quarterly, 47(2), 144–154.
McDuling, J., Horak, E., and Cloete, C. (2008). “Evaluation of environmental degradation factors for service life prediction.” 11th DBMC, Int. Conf. on Durability of Building Materials and Components, A., Nil Türkeri, and S., Özkan, eds., Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey, T32.
Myung, I. J. (2003). “Tutorial on maximum likelihood estimation.” J. Math. Psychol., 47(1), 90–100.
Noortwijk, J., and Frangopol, D. (2004). “Deterioration and maintenance models for insuring safety of civil infrastructures at lowest life-cycle cost.” Life-cycle performance of deterioration structures: assessment, design and management, D. M. Frangopol, E. Bruhwiler, M. H. Faber, and B. Adey, eds., ASCE, Reston, VA, 384–391.
Shohet, I., and Paciuk, M. (2004). “Service life prediction of exterior cladding components under standard conditions.” Constr. Manage. Econ., 22(10), 1081–1090.
Shohet, I., Rosenfeld, Y., Puterman, M., and Gilboa, E. (1999). “Deterioration patterns for maintenance management—A methodological approach.” 8th DBMC, Conf. on Durability of Building Materials and Components, M. A., Lacasse, and D. J., Vanier, eds., National Research Council Canada, NRC Research Press, Ottawa, Canada, 1666–1678.
Silva, A., de Brito, J., and Gaspar, P. L. (2011). “Service life prediction model applied to natural stone wall claddings (directly adhered to the substrate).” Constr. Build. Mater., 25(9), 3674–3684.
Straub, A. (2003). “Using a condition-dependent approach to maintenance to control costs and performances.” Facil. Manage., 1(4), 380–395.
Suthar, V., Tarmizi, R. A., Midi, H., and Adam, M. B. (2010). “Students’ beliefs on mathematics and achievement of university students: Logistics regression analysis.” Int. Conf. on Mathematics Education Research (ICMER 2010), Procedia—Social and Behavioral Sciences, R. A., Tarmizi, and A. F., Mohd Ayub, eds., Elsevier, Vol. 8, 525–531.
Wang, Y. (2005). “A multinomial logistic regression modeling approach for anomaly intrusion detection.” Comput. Secur., 24(8), 662–674.
Warke, P. A., Curran, J. M., Turkington, A. V., and Smith, B. J. (2003). “Condition assessment for building stone conservation: A staging system approach.” Build. Environ., 38(9–10), 1113–1123.
Wekesa, B. W., Steyn, G. S., and Otieno, F. A. O. (2010). “The response of common building construction technologies to the urban poor and their environment.” Build. Environ., 45(10), 2327–2335.
Wells, G. (2002). Gale encyclopaedia of public health, The Gale Group, Macmillan Reference, New York.
Westergren, A., Karlsson, S., Andersson, P., Ohlsson, O., and Hallberg, I. R. (2001). “Eating difficulties, need for assisted eating, nutritional status and pressure ulcers in patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation.” J. Clin. Nursing, 10(2), 257–269.
Witten, I. H., and Frank, E. (2005). Data mining: Practical machine learning tools and techniques, 2nd Ed., Morgan Kaufman, Boston.
Wuensch, K. L. (2011). Binary logistic regression, Dept. of Psychology, East Carolina Univ., Greenville, NC.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Materials in Civil Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 2 • February 2013
Pages: 227 - 235
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 20, 2011
Accepted: May 23, 2012
Published online: May 26, 2012
Published in print: Feb 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.