Scenario Planning Application in US Highway Transportation Industry
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 25, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper demonstrates how a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches following the scenario planning methodology can be used to identify driving forces (drivers) that might influence the future of the transportation system over a 30-year period. A case study of the highway transportation industry in the United States is presented. A causal loop diagram and cross-impact matrix were combined to understand the interactions among the drivers identified through a literature review, and then a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to determine how the drivers could be grouped to understand their behaviors in the future. These behaviors were described in a baseline scenario and in six multidriver scenarios representing alternative futures. Scenarios were used to determine key implications for transportation agencies when addressing underlying challenges and potential opportunities which the transportation industry might entertain. The authors showed how agencies may use these scenarios to assess the performance of their plans or assumptions against potentially radical shifts in the future and develop strategies that could make the transportation system resilient to a wide variety of possible future conditions.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank all the subject matter experts who contributed their expertise and time to refine this research. This material is also based upon work supported by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program under Project Series No. 20-83.
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 25 • Issue 2 • June 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 29, 2017
Accepted: Sep 4, 2018
Published online: Jan 28, 2019
Published in print: Jun 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 28, 2019
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