Fragility and Resilience Indicators for Portfolio of Oil Storage Tanks Subjected to Hurricanes
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 24, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper develops fragility functions and estimates of resilience indicators for aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) subjected to hurricanes, which can be efficiently applied to all the tanks in a regional portfolio of ASTs to assess their hurricane performance. Fragility and resilience assessment of a portfolio of ASTs is essential for planning mitigation strategies at the regional level and at the level of individual structures. Recently, studies have started assessing the fragility of ASTs under hurricane loads; most of the existing studies are focused on a specific AST type and a specific hurricane-related hazard. However, in order to facilitate performance assessment of an entire portfolio of ASTs, fragility functions for different types of tanks and hazards are necessary, which are lacking in the literature. Furthermore, estimates for resilience indicators such as repair costs and downtime are also not available in the literature. Therefore, to address these gaps, this study first develops fragility functions for different types of ASTs subjected to hurricane winds and storm surge. Next, estimates of repair costs and downtime are defined for different failure modes of ASTs by adapting costs and downtime for similar failure modes from different hazards. The fragility functions, repair costs, and downtime estimates developed herein are used to assess the performance of ASTs in the Houston Ship Chanel (HSC), which houses more than 4,500 ASTs, for two synthetic hurricane scenarios corresponding to 100 and 250-year return period events. For both scenarios, 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations are performed for each tank to determine the failure probability, repair costs, and downtime for all ASTs while propagating uncertainties in the fill level and density of contents stored in all ASTs. Furthermore, the influence of anchoring all tanks as a storm surge risk mitigation strategy on the performance of ASTs is also evaluated. The results provide several insights into the performance of tanks in the Houston Ship Channel during the two hurricanes: the tanks are not vulnerable to hurricane winds; however, failures are observed due to storm surge, which highlights the need for storm surge mitigation measures for the Houston Ship Channel region. Furthermore, tanks with the highest failure probability do not necessarily lead to high spill volumes or repair costs. Moreover, even minimum anchoring is observed to be effective in significantly reducing the spill volume and repair costs.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the support for this research by the Houston Endowment and by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant No. CMMI-1635784. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funding agencies. The authors also acknowledge computational facilities provided by Data Analysis and Visualization Cyberinfrastructure (NSF Grant No. OCI-0959097).
References
ADCIRC version 51 [Computer software]. Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.
API (American Petroleum Institute). (2013). “Welded steel tanks for oil storage.” API 650, Washington, DC.
ArcGIS version 10 [Computer software]. ESRI, Redlands, CA.
Barton, D., and Parker, J. (1987). “Finite element analysis of the seismic response of anchored and unanchored liquid storage tanks.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 15(3), 299–322.
Bedient, P., and Blackburn, J. (2016). “Developing a Houston-Galveston area protection system (HGAPS)—SSPEED center update.” SSPEED Center, Rice Univ., Houston.
Berkeley, A. R., III, and Wallace, M. (2010). A framework for establishing critical infrastructure resilience goals, National Infrastructure Advisory Council, Washington, DC.
Bernier, C., Elliott, J. R., Padgett, J. E., Kellerman, F., and Bedient, P. B. (2017). “Evolution of social vulnerability and risks of chemical spills during storm surge along the Houston Ship Channel.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 04017013.
Bruneau, M., et al. (2003). “A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities.” Earthquake Spectra, 19(4), 733–752.
Cozzani, V., Campedel, M., Renni, E., and Krausmann, E. (2010). “Industrial accidents triggered by flood events: Analysis of past accidents.” J. Hazard. Mater., 175(1), 501–509.
Cristianini, N., and Shawe-Taylor, J. (2000). An introduction to support vector machines and other kernel-based learning methods, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
CEN (European Committee for Standardization). (2007). “Design of steel structures—Part 4-1: Design of steel structures: Silos.” EN 1993-4-1 Eurocode 3, Brussels, Belgium.
EPA. (2016). “Flood preparedness—Recommended best practices.”, Dallas.
Etkin, D. S. (2000). “Worldwide analysis of marine oil spill cleanup cost factors.” Proc., Arctic and Marine Oilspill Program Technical Seminar, Environment Canada, Ottawa, 161–174.
Fabbrocino, G., Iervolino, I., Orlando, F., and Salzano, E. (2005). “Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.” J. Hazard. Mater., 123(1–3), 61–69.
Flores, F. G., and Godoy, L. A. (1998). “Buckling of short tanks due to hurricanes.” Eng. Struct., 20(8), 752–760.
Godoy, L. (2007). “Performance of storage tanks in oil facilities damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.” J. Perform. Constr. Facil., 441–449.
Godoy, L. A., and Flores, F. G. (2002). “Imperfection sensitivity to elastic buckling of wind loaded open cylindrical tanks.” Struct. Eng. Mech., 13(5), 533–542.
Hallquist, J. O. (2012). LS-DYNA keyword user’s manual, Livermore Software Technology, Livermore, CA.
Haroun, M. A., and Housner, G. W. (1981). “Earthquake response of deformable liquid storage tanks.” J. Appl. Mech., 48(2), 411–418.
Hosmer, D., and Lemeshow, S. (1989). Applied logistic regression, Wiley, New York.
Hosseini, M., Soroor, A., Sardar, A., and Jafarieh, F. (2011). “A simplified method for seismic analysis of tanks with floating roof by using finite element method: Case study of Kharg (southern Iran) Island tanks.” Proc. Eng., 14, 2884–2890.
Kameshwar, S., and Padgett, J. (2015a). “Stochastic modeling of geometric imperfections in aboveground storage tanks for probabilistic buckling capacity estimation.” ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertain. Eng. Syst., Part A: Civ. Eng., 2(2), C4015005.
Kameshwar, S., and Padgett, J. E. (2015b). “Fragility assessment of above ground petroleum storage tanks under storm surge.” Proc., 12th Int. Conf. on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Kameshwar, S., and Padgett, J. E. (2018). “Storm surge fragility assessment of above ground storage tanks.” Struct. Saf., 70, 40–48.
Kingston, P. F. (2002). “Long-term environmental impact of oil spills.” Spill Sci. Technol. Bull., 7(1–2), 53–61.
LS-DYNA version 8.0 [Computer software]. LSTC, Livermore, CA.
Luettich, R. A., and Westerink, J. J. (2004). “Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADCIRC finite element model version 44. XX.” Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC.
Maki, A. W. (1991). “The Exxon Valdez oil spill: Initial environmental impact assessment. Part 2.” Environ. Sci. Technol., 25(1), 24–29.
Michigan Department of Treasury. (2003). “Assessor’s manual volume II.” State of Michigan, Lansing, MI.
Myers, P. E. (1997). Aboveground storage tanks, McGraw-Hill, New York.
NBCNews.com. (2006). “$330 million settlement deal in Katrina oil spill.” ⟨http://www.nbcnews.com/id/15004868/ns/us_news-environment/t/million-settlement-deal-katrina-oil-spill/#.VeWtoPlViko⟩ (Sep. 1, 2015).
Nelson-Farrar Refinery Construction Index. (2004). Oil and gas journal, Vol. 102, PennWell Petroleum Group, Tulsa, OK.
Nelson-Farrar Refinery Construction Index. (2016). Oil and gas journal, Vol. 114, PennWell Petroleum Group, Tulsa, OK.
NIBS (National Institute of Building Sciences). (2005). “Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology, earthquake model, HAZUS® MH technical manual.” Washington, DC.
Niwa, A., and Clough, R. W. (1982). “Buckling of cylindrical liquid-storage tanks under earthquake loading.” Earthquake Eng. Struct. Dyn., 10(1), 107–122.
O’Rourke, M. J., and So, P. (2000). “Seismic fragility curves for on-grade steel tanks.” Earthquake Spectra, 16(4), 801–815.
Palinkas, L., Downs, M., Petterson, J., and Russell, J. (1993). “Social, cultural, and psychological impacts of the Exxon Valdez oil spill.” Hum. Organ., 52(1), 1–13.
Pavlov, Y. L. (2000). Random forests, VSP, Zeist, Netherlands.
Portela, G., and Godoy, L. A. (2005a). “Wind pressures and buckling of cylindrical steel tanks with a conical roof.” J. Constr. Steel Res., 61(6), 786–807.
Portela, G., and Godoy, L. A. (2005b). “Wind pressures and buckling of cylindrical steel tanks with a dome roof.” J. Constr. Steel Res., 61(6), 808–824.
Sakai, F., Nishimura, M., and Ogawa, H. (1984). “Sloshing behavior of floating-roof oil storage tanks.” Comput. Struct., 19(1–2), 183–192.
Salzano, E., Iervolino, I., and Fabbrocino, G. (2003). “Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis.” J. Loss Prev. Process Ind., 16(5), 403–409.
Teng, J. G., and Rotter, J. M. (2006). Buckling of thin metal shells, Spon Press, London.
The Port of Houston Authority. (2016). “Overview.” ⟨http://porthouston.com/about-us/⟩. (Sep. 15, 2016).
Virella, J. C., Godoy, L. A., and Suárez, L. E. (2003). “Influence of the roof on the natural periods of empty steel tanks.” Eng. Struct., 25(7), 877–887.
Zhao, Y., and Lin, Y. (2014). “Buckling of cylindrical open-topped steel tanks under wind load.” Thin Walled Struct., 79(1), 83–94.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 24 • Issue 2 • June 2018
Copyright
©2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 22, 2016
Accepted: Sep 26, 2017
Published online: Jan 26, 2018
Published in print: Jun 1, 2018
Discussion open until: Jun 26, 2018
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.