Stochastic Modeling of Road System Performance during Multihazard Events: Flash Floods and Earthquakes
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23, Issue 4
Abstract
Transport resilience is an important area of research in the global effort to adapt to climate change. This paper introduces and applies a stochastic modeling methodology to assess the impact of multihazard events. Most cities are exposed to multiple types of extreme events, sometimes simultaneously, and focusing on single events may lead to inadequate design recommendations. By assigning failure probabilities of road segments and by estimating road failure through Monte Carlo simulation, roads and areas that are particularly vulnerable to multihazard events can be detected. The performance of the large-scale road network of the Tokai region in Japan (prone to both typhoons and earthquakes) is analyzed by considering three scenarios of hazards: flash flood, earthquake, and the combination of both hazards. The model considers two key traffic performance characteristics: postdisaster reduced road capacity and hourly variations in travel demand. Overall, several areas in the region are found to be currently severely at risk, thus providing direct information that can help authorities test the effectiveness of future road infrastructure projects.
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Acknowledgments
The downscaled future projection data used in this paper were provided by the SOUSEI project of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, Japan. This research was partly supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) CAREER award 1551731.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 23 • Issue 4 • December 2017
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©2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 12, 2016
Accepted: Apr 27, 2017
Published online: Jul 29, 2017
Published in print: Dec 1, 2017
Discussion open until: Dec 29, 2017
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