Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Corroded Buried Pipelines Considering External Defects
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 22, Issue 3
Abstract
To address the integrity concerns related to aging pipelines, this paper uses reliability analysis to evaluate the time-dependent performance of pipeline subjected to external corrosion considering prevailing uncertainties. A power-law function of time model is proposed to probabilistically predict the growth of corrosion maximum defect depth and defect length considering a Poisson process for the occurrence of defects. This model can be used: (1) when either matched or nonmatched defects are available; and (2) to consider the newly generated defects since the last inspection. The Bayesian methodology is employed to assess the unknown model parameters using the in-line inspection data and a bivariant normal distribution is adopted to construct the likelihood function with the consideration of the dependency of defect depth and length growth models. The performance of the pipeline is evaluated through assessing probability of failure per kilometer, which is defined as a series system of detected and newly generated defects within that kilometer for small leak, large leak, and rupture failure modes. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to determine to which parameter(s) the reliability of the studied pipeline is most sensitive.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the SENER-CONACyT for the financial support to perform the work in this study (under project number 159913) Also, the constructive comments of the anonymous reviewers are appreciated.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 22 • Issue 3 • September 2016
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Sep 30, 2015
Accepted: Feb 1, 2016
Published online: Apr 1, 2016
Published in print: Sep 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 1, 2016
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