Abstract
Civil infrastructure systems such as power, water, and communications are critical for the well-being and functioning of citizens, industries, and organizations both under normal and disaster conditions. Infrastructure systems cannot be seen as independent entities because they rely a great deal on each other for services needed for operation. Damage to one system can have cascading effects throughout that system, and throughout all of the systems that rely on it. To obtain a meaningful prediction of disruption, these interdependencies among the systems must be considered. This paper presents two models to predict and analyze the effect that a hurricane can have on the performance of interdependent infrastructure systems. The first model uses a Monte Carlo simulation and statistical methods to predict the damage caused by a hurricane on the systems being considered. The second model applies optimization techniques to determine the cascading effects that the damage has throughout the infrastructure systems considered. A case study was conducted using an artificial interdependent infrastructure data set called “Clarc” County. Examples from this case study show that there is a benefit in considering interdependencies among infrastructure systems when predicting disruptions. In addition, the effect of these interdependencies can be assessed in time to support decision making for restoration of services either during an event or as a training exercise.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The work of the authors was supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate under Award Number: 2008-ST-061-ND 0001. The views and conclusions in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The models presented here along with the artificial community data set are available by request to [email protected]. In addition, we would like to express our appreciation for the efforts of the editors and reviewers of this journal. Their comments and inquires have been invaluable in the development of this paper.
References
Aitchison, J., and Brown, J. A. C. (1957). The lognormal distribution, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Argonne National Laboratory. (2003). “Infrastructure interdependencies associated with the August 14, 2003 electric power blackout.”, Argonne National Laboratory Infrastructure Assurance Center, Argonne, IL.
Bigger, J. E., Willingham, M. G., and Krimgold, F. (2009). “Consequences of critical infrastructure interdependencies: Lessons from the 2004 hurricane season in Florida.” Int. J. Crit. Infrastruct., 5(3), 199–219.
Chang, S. E., McDaniels, T., Fox, J., Dhariwal, R., and Longstaff, H. (2014). “Toward disaster-resilient cities: Characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments.” Risk Anal., 34(3), 416–434.
Chang, S. E., McDaniels, T. L., Mikawoz, J., and Peterson, K. (2007). “Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: Power outage consequences in the 1998 ice storm.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 41(2), 337–358.
Davidson, R. A., Liu, H., Sarpong, I. K., Sparks, P., and Rosowsky, D. V. (2003). “Electric power distribution system performance in Carolina hurricanes.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 36–45.
Dudenhoeffer, D. D., Permann, M. R., Woolsey, S., Timpany, R., Miller, C., and Manic, M. (2007). “Interdependency modeling and emergency response.” Proc., Summer Computer Simulation Conf., Society for Computer Simulation International, San Diego, 1230–1237.
Dueñas-Osorio, L., and Vemuru, S. (2009). “Cascading failures in complex infrastructure systems.” Struct. Safety, 31(2), 157–167.
ESRI (Environmental Systems Research Institute). (2013). ArcGIS, 〈http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
Ezell, B. C., Farr, J. V., and Wiese, I. (2000). “Infrastructure risk analysis model.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 114–117.
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). (2012a). “HAZUS flood model technical manual.” 〈https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/24609〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). (2012b). “HAZUS hurricane model technical manual.” 〈https://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/24609〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
Han, S. R. (2008). “Estimating hurricane outage and damage risk in power distribution systems.” Ph.D. dissertation, Texas A&M Univ., Civil Engineering, College Station, TX.
IBM Corporation. (2013). “IBM ILOG CPLEX optimization studio 12.5 online manual.” 〈http://pic.dhe.ibm.com/infocenter/cosinfoc/v12r5/index.jsp〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
Islam, T., and Moselhi, O. (2012). “Modeling geospatial interdependence for integrated municipal infrastructure.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 68–74.
Lee, E. E., Mitchell, J. E., and Wallace, W. A. (2007). “Restoration of services in interdependent infrastructure systems: A network flows approach.” IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern., 37(6), 1303–1317.
Little, R. G. (2002). “Controlling cascading failure: Understanding the vulnerabilities of interconnected infrastructures.” J. Urban Technol., 9(1), 109–123.
MathWorks. (2014). “MATLAB R2014a online manual.” 〈http://www.mathworks.com/help/matlab〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
McDaniels, T., Chang, S., Peterson, K., Mikawoz, J., and Reed, D. (2007). “Empirical framework for characterizing infrastructure failure interdependencies.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 175–184.
Mendonça, D., and Wallace, W. A. (2006). “Impacts of the 2001 world trade center attack on New York City critical infrastructures.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 260–270.
Merwade, V., Olivera, F., Arabi, M., and Edleman, S. (2008). “Uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: Current issues and future directions.” J. Hydraul. Eng., 608–620.
Nadal, N. C., Zapata, R. E., Pagán, I., López, R., and Agudelo, J. (2010). “Building damage due to riverine and coastal floods.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 327–336.
Ng, T., and Cai, X. (2014). “Relationships between interdependency, reliability, and vulnerability of infrastructure systems: Case study of biofuel infrastructure development.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 1–10.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Coastal Services Center. (2013). NOAA digital coast, 〈http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast〉 (Aug. 12, 2014).
Ouyang, M. (2014). “Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems.” Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 121, 43–60.
Reed, D. A., Powell, M. D., and Westerman, J. M. (2010a). “Energy infrastructure damage analysis for hurricane Rita.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 102–109.
Reed, D. A., Powell, M. D., and Westerman, J. M. (2010b). “Energy supply system performance for hurricane Katrina.” J. Energy Eng., 95–102.
Rinaldi, S. M. (2004). “Modeling and simulating critical infrastructures and their interdependencies.” Proc., 37th Hawaii Int. Conf. on System Sciences, IEEE, New York, 5–8.
Rinaldi, S. M., Peerenboom, J. P., and Kelly, T. K. (2001). “Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies.” IEEE Control Syst. Mag., 21(6), 11–25.
Smith, A. B., and Katz, R. W. (2013). “U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: Data sources, trends, accuracy and biases.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 67(2), 387–410.
Subramanian, D., Salazar, J., Duenas-Osorio, L., and Stein, R. (2012). “Constructing and validating geographically refined HAZUS-MH4 hurricane wind risk models: A machine learning approach.” Adv. Hurricane Eng., 1056–1066.
Tromble, E., et al. (2009). “Aspects of coupled hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling for coastal flood inundation.” Proc., Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, ASCE, Reston, VA, 724–743.
Unanwa, C. O., McDonald, J. R., Mehta, K. C., and Smith, D. A. (2000). “The development of wind damage bands for buildings.” J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 84(1), 119–149.
Vickery, P. J, Wadhera, D., Twisdale, L. A., and Lavelle, F. M. (2009). “U.S. hurricane wind speed risk and uncertainty.” J. Struct. Eng., 301–320.
Willoughby, H. E. (2012). “Distributions and trends of death and destruction from hurricanes in the United States, 1900–2008.” Nat. Hazards Rev., 57–64.
Zhang, P., and Peeta, S. (2011). “A generalized modeling framework to analyze interdependencies among infrastructure systems.” Transp. Res. Methodol., 45(3), 553–579.
Zimmerman, R. (2004). “Decision-making and the vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructure.” Proc., IEEE Int. Conf. on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 4059–4063.
Zimmerman, R., and Restrepo, C. E. (2009). “Analyzing cascading effects within infrastructure sectors for consequence reduction.” Proc., IEEE Conf. on Technologies for Homeland Security, IEEE, New York, 165–170.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 21 • Issue 4 • December 2015
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 17, 2013
Accepted: Jan 16, 2015
Published online: May 14, 2015
Discussion open until: Oct 14, 2015
Published in print: Dec 1, 2015
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.