Road Infrastructure and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptations for South Africa
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 21, Issue 3
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a study on the impact of climate change on road infrastructure in South Africa. The approach used built on previous work associated with the UNU-WIDER Development under Climate Change (DUCC) effort, emphasizing understanding of the impact of climate change on roads. This paper illustrates how climate change effects on road infrastructure can be evaluated at a national and provincial level to produce quantitative estimates of climate change from multiple future scenarios. The results of the study indicate that the national-level climate change cost impact in South Africa will vary between US$116.8 million and US$228.7 million annually in the 2050 decade for the median and maximum climate scenarios if a no-adaptation policy action is taken. Conversely, if a proactive adaptation action is taken, these costs can be reduced to US$55.7 million. The savings in costs arising from climate change impacts based on this policy approach is equivalent to building more than 10,000 km of new, secondary paved road by 2050. The analysis focused on the advantage of a proactive policy approach: the upgrade of road infrastructure where climate impacts will exceed current design and maintenance standards. A stressor-response methodology created by the writers is briefly explained, including the application of 54 potential climate futures using general circulation models (GCMs) approved by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper focuses on provincial-level impacts of both a proactive and a reactive approach. Decadal and average annual costs are detailed through 2100.
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Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 21 • Issue 3 • September 2015
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Dec 14, 2012
Accepted: Aug 8, 2014
Published online: Sep 12, 2014
Discussion open until: Feb 12, 2015
Published in print: Sep 1, 2015
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