Estimation of Pavement Crack Initiation Models by Combining Experimental and Field Data
Publication: Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 19, Issue 4
Abstract
Development of deterioration models for pavements is an essential part of maintenance and rehabilitation planning. Often, when pavement-deterioration models are developed for developing countries or states that do not have regularly scheduled condition surveys, the only available data are experimental. Experimental data sets fail to include environmental variables and cannot capture properly the aging process of pavements, so the estimated models suffer from biases. This paper describes the development of a pavement-crack-initiation model by combining experimental and field data to correct for such biases. The American Association of State Highway Officials (AASHO) Road Test is used as the experimental data set, which is combined with field data from the Washington State Department of Transportation. The two models are first estimated separately, correcting for endogeneity biases that may exist in the field model. Joint estimation is used next to quantify the bias in the experimental data set and estimate the parameters of the combined model. This study shows that joint estimation can lead to more robust crack-initiation models compared to those estimated separately by the two data sets.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Archilla, A. R., and Madanat, S. (2001). “Estimation of rutting models by combining data from different sources.” J. Transp. Eng., 127(5), 379–389.
Christofa, E., and Madanat, S. (2010). “Development of pavement crack initiation models by combining experimental and field data.” Proc., Transportation Research Board 89th Annual Meeting, National Research Council, Washington, DC.
Cox, D. R. (1972). “Regression models and life-tables.” J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 34, 187–220.
Empresa Brasilieira de Planejamento de Transportes (GEIPOT). (1982). “Research on the interrelationships between costs of highway construction, maintenance and utilization (PCIR).” Final Report, Vol. 12, Ministry of Transport, Brasilia, Brazil.
Fox, J. (2002). “Cox proportional hazards regression for survival data.” Appendix: An R and S-PLUS Companion to Applied Regression, Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA, 1–18.
Greene, W. H. (1997). Econometric analysis, 3rd Ed., Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
Guler, S. I., and Madanat, S. (2011). “Axle load power for pavement fatigue cracking.” Transp. Res. Rec., 2225(1), 21–24.
Hicks, R. G. (1991). “Moisture damage in asphalt concrete.” NCHRP Synthesis of Highway Practice 175, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, DC.
Highway Research Board (HRB). (1962). “The AASHO Road Test.”, National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Washington, DC.
Kalbfleisch, J. D., and Prentice, R. L. (2002). The statistical analysis of failure time data, 2nd Ed., Wiley, New York.
Leucuta, D., Achimas, D. C., and Cadariu, A. (2011). “Statistical graphical user interface plug-in for survival analysis in R statistical and graphics language and environment.” Appl. Med. Inf., 23(3–4), 57–62.
Loizos, A., and Karlaftis, M. G. (2005). “Prediction of pavement crack initiation from in-service pavements: A duration model approach.” Transp. Res. Record, 1940(1), 38–42.
Madanat, S., Bulusu, S., and Mahmoud, A. (1995). “Estimation of infrastructure distress initiation and progression models.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 1(3), 146–150.
Madanat, S., Prozzi, J. A., and Han, M. (2002). “Effect of performance model accuracy on optimal pavement design.” Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng., 17(1), 22–30.
Nakat, Z., and Madanat, S. (2008). “Stochastic duration modeling of pavement overlay crack initiation.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 14(3), 185–192.
Paterson, W. D. O., and Chesher, A. D. (1986). “On predicting pavement surface distress with empirical models of failure times.” Transp. Res. Rec., 1095, 45–56.
Paterson, W. D. O. (1987). Road deterioration and maintenance effects: Models for planning and management, Highway and Maintenance Standard Series, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
Prozzi, J. A., and Madanat, S. (2000). “Using duration models to analyze experimental pavement failure data.” Transp. Res. Rec., 1699(1), 87–94.
Prozzi, J. A., and Madanat, S. (2004). “Development of pavement performance models by combining experimental and field data.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 10(1), 9–22.
Queiroz, C. A. V. (1981). “Performance prediction models for pavement management in Brazil.” Ph.D. dissertation, University of Texas, Austin, TX.
Schoenfeld, D. (1982). “Partial residuals for the proportional hazards regression model.” Biometrika, 69(1), 239–241.
Shin, H. C., and Madanat, S. (2003). “Development of a stochastic model of pavement distress initiation.” J. Infrastruct. Plann. Manage., 744(61), 61–68.
Shyr, F. Y., and Ben-Akiva, M. (1996). “Modeling rail fatigue behavior with multiple hazards.” J. Infrastruct. Syst., 2(2), 73–82.
Sousa, J. B., Shatnawi, S., and Cox, J. (1996). “An approach for investigating reflective fatigue cracking in asphalt concrete overlays.” Reflective cracking in pavements: Design and performance of overlay systems, Proc., Third Int. RILEM Conf., Maastricht, The Netherlands, 2–4 October 1996, E & FN Spon, London, 103–112.
Washington, S., Karlaftis, M. G., and Mannering, F. L. (2003). “Statistical and econometric methods for transportation data analysis.” Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.
Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT). (2011). “WSDOT Pavement Policy.” 〈http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/NR/rdonlyres/D7971B81-5443-45B9-8B9B-BFC0D721F5A1/0/WSDOTPavementPolicyFinal71211.pdf〉 (Nov. 20, 2011).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Journal of Infrastructure Systems
Volume 19 • Issue 4 • December 2013
Pages: 434 - 441
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jul 19, 2012
Accepted: Feb 7, 2013
Published online: Feb 9, 2013
Discussion open until: Jul 9, 2013
Published in print: Dec 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.