Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activity on Streamflow at the Basin Scale
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 142, Issue 8
Abstract
This paper analyzes long-term trends and sudden changes in hydro-climatic variables (i.e., runoff) in Iran’s Aidoghmoush basin during 1971–2000 using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and curves of cumulative runoff versus rainfall and cumulative runoff versus temperature The use of the Mann-Kendall test with a 99% confidence level revealed a decreasing trend in annual rainfall and total runoff and an increasing trend in temperature. A sudden change in the gradient of the cumulative curves in 1988 indicated that the relation between climatic variables and runoff is influenced by human activities (agricultural water use). The interval 1971–2000 was separated into a baseline interval (1971–1988) and an impact interval (1989–2000), during which human activities affected runoff. The five-parameter hydrologic model of IHACRES (Identification of unit Hydrographs and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation, and Streamflow data) was calibrated and verified over the baseline interval to determine the contribution of human activities and climatic variability to the change in runoff. Runoff was simulated with the hydrologic model for the interval 1989–2000, during which human activities reduced runoff. Results show that climate variability and human activities decreased the runoff in the Aidoghmoush river basin by 79 and 21%, respectively.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge University of Tehran for financial support of this research.
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© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jun 2, 2015
Accepted: Jan 27, 2016
Published online: Apr 22, 2016
Published in print: Aug 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Sep 22, 2016
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