Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity of Irrigated and Drained Fields. II: Multivariate Stochastic Analysis of Root-Zone Hydrosalinity and Crop Yield
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 10
Abstract
Spatial heterogeneity and measurement error in parameters representing flow and salt transport properties in irrigated and drained fields make numerical prediction of soil hydrosalinity conditions, crop yield response, and other variables prone to uncertainty. This paper presents a method to account for uncertainty of correlated regionalized parameters in simulating key performance variables using a three-dimensional (3D) flow and transport model, the Colorado State University Irrigation and Drainage (CSUID) model, coupled with multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Sequential indicator simulation is used to generate 3D correlated realizations for hydraulic conductivity, porosity, residual water content, van Genuchten parameters, and dispersivity. Other semiempirical parameters that control crop water uptake, irrigation efficiency, and subsurface drainage conductance also are randomized. The generated ensembles for each of the considered parameters are processed with the CSUID model to obtain the spatial statistical moments of root-zone hydrosalinity conditions and relative crop yield for an irrigated and drained alfalfa field. In addition, the statistical properties of hydrographs of drainage effluent and salt concentration are explored. Results show that parameter uncertainty significantly affects the predicted hydrosalinity responses, consequently affecting uncertainty in the estimate of relative crop yield throughout the field. Spatial distributions of the coefficient of variation of the ensemble of predicted values of water table depth and soil salinity ranged from 1–21% and 12–31%, respectively, across the field at the end of the 60-day simulated period. Corresponding spatial distributions of the coefficient of variation of the predicted relative yield of alfalfa values ranged from 16–36%. With respect to the simulated period, the temporal distribution of the coefficient of variation of the drainage effluent rate and salt concentration ranged from 23–42% and 1.5–0.8%, respectively.
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Acknowledgments
The writers appreciate the cooperation of Mr. Kenny Mills and Mr. Les Mills of Rocky Ford, Colorado, who provided access to their land for the research reported in this paper. The writers also thank Dr. Greg Butters, Associate Professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences at Colorado State University, for allowing access to his laboratory and for his support in conducting measurements of several soil properties used in the research reported in this paper. In addition, funding provided by the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station and the United States Bureau of Reclamation, along with the assistance of Mr. Roger P. Burnett of the USBR, Denver Technical Service Center, is appreciated. The views and conclusions contained in this paper are those of the writers and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the U.S. government. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute their endorsement by the U.S. government.
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Published In
Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 139 • Issue 10 • October 2013
Pages: 809 - 820
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 5, 2012
Accepted: Jan 23, 2013
Published online: Apr 13, 2013
Discussion open until: Sep 13, 2013
Published in print: Oct 1, 2013
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