Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Performance Indexes in Agricultural Water Supply
Publication: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering
Volume 139, Issue 2
Abstract
This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the volume of inflow to a reservoir and the volume of downstream water demand by considering three climate change scenarios in an East Azerbaijan river basin. The HadCM3 model was used to estimate possible scenarios of temperature and rainfall for the period 2026–2039 under an emission scenario (A2). A hydrological model (IHACRES) was first calibrated for the basin; and then, a monthly time series of future temperatures and rainfall were entered into IHACRES. In addition, a 14-year time series of monthly runoff was simulated for 2026–2039. Modeling results indicated that the average long-term annual runoff volume decreased by 0.7% relative to the base period (1987–2000). However, by assuming a nonchanging cultivation area, the average long-term annual water demand volume for crops increased by 16%. Both simulation and optimization models of reservoir operation were used. The simulation of reservoir performance in the delivery of water demand was implemented according to the standard operating policy (SOP) and by using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model. The three aforementioned climate change scenarios were then introduced to the WEAP, and the reservoir performance indexes (reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency) were calculated. Results showed that indexes would change in the future relative to the base. Next, for the optimal operation of the reservoir with a water supply for agricultural and environmental purposes, the minimization of total squared deficiencies in the allocation to these purposes was determined for each month and climate change scenario by the using LINGO Version 11.0 software [nonlinear programming (NLP)] algorithm. Results showed that the indexes would change.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
References
Boyer, C., Chaumont, D., Chartier, I., and Roy, A. G. (2010). “Impact of climate change on the hydrology of St. Lawrence tributaries.” J. Hydrol., 384(1–2), 65–83.
Carter, T. R. (2007). General guideline on the use of scenario data for climate impact and adaptation assessment, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland, 39–40.
Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Palmer, R. N. (2004). “The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin.” Clim. Change, 62(1), 337–363.
Diaz-Nieto, J., and Wilby, R. L. (2005). “A comparison of statistical and climate change factor methods: Impacts on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom.” Clim. Change, 69(2–3), 245–268.
Doorenbos, J., and Pruitt, W. O. (1984). “Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements.” Irrigation and drainage (FAO), paper 24, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). “Climate change 2007: The physical science basis.” Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment rep. of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. Tingor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK.
IPCC-DDC. (1988). “Data distribution centre.” 〈http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/〉.
Jakeman, A. J., and Hornberger, G. M. (1993). “How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model?.” Water Resour. Res., 29(8), 2637–2649.
Knox, J. W., Rodríguez Díaz, J. A., Nixon, D. J., and Mkhwanazi, M. (2010). “A preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on sugarcane in Swaziland.” Agric. Syst., 103(2), 63–72.
LINGO Version 11.0 [Computer software]. LINDO Systems, Chicago.
Liu, S., et al. (2010). “Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China.” Agric. Water Manage., 97(8), 1195–1209.
Loucks, D. P., and Van Beek, E. (2005). “Water resources systems planning and management: An introduction to methods, models and applications.” Chapter: Studies and Reports in Hydrology, Performance criteria, UNESCO Publishing, Paris, 320–321.
Muzik, I. (2001). “Sensitivity of hydrologic systems to climate change.” Can. Water Resour. J., 26(2), 233–253.
Purkey, D. R., et al. (2007). “Robust analysis of future climate change impacts on water for agriculture and other sectors: A case study in the Sacramento Valley.” Clim. Change, 87(Supplement 1), S109–S122.
Quinn, N. W. T., Brekke, L. D., Miller, N. L., Heinzer, T., Hidalgo, H., and Dracup, J. A. (2004). “Model integration for assessing future hydroclimate impacts on water resources, agricultural production and environmental quality in the San Joaquin Basin, California.” Environ. Model. Software, 19(3), 305–316.
Raje, D., and Mujumdar, P. P. (2010). “Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change.” Adv. Water Resour., 33(3), 312–326.
Robson, A. J. (2002). “Evidence for trends in UK flooding.” Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, 360(1796), 1327–1343.
Sieber, J., Swartz, C., and Huber-Lee, A. (2005). User guide for WEAP21, Stockholm Environment Institute Tellus Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Steele-Dunne, S., et al. (2008). “The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland.” J. Hydrol., 356(1–2), 28–45.
Steinemann, A., and Cavalcanti, L. (2006). “Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans.” J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 132(3), 164–173.
Wilby, R. L., and Harris, I. (2006). “A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: Low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK.” Water Resour. Res., 42(2), W02419.
Xu, C. Y., and Singh, V. P. (2004). “Review on regional water resources assessment models under stationary and changing climate.” Water Resour. Manage., 18(6), 591–612.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 19, 2012
Accepted: Jul 20, 2012
Published online: Jul 27, 2012
Published in print: Feb 1, 2013
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.