Significance of Conceptual Model Uncertainty in Simulating Carbon Sequestration in a Deep Inclined Saline Aquifer
Publication: Journal of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste
Volume 19, Issue 3
Abstract
In modeling geologic carbon sequestration in a deep inclined aquifer in Wyoming, the impact of geologic, engineering, and environmental uncertainty factors on parameter importance and prediction uncertainty is evaluated. Given site characterization data, a suite of geologic model families were built to represent aquifer permeability heterogeneity at increasing complexity. With each family, the same experiment was simulated. Over a period of 50 years, 17 million tons of is injected into the aquifer at an approximate depth of 3,750 m. Postinjection simulation is then carried out for a total simulation time of 2,000 years. Based on the design of the experiment, a screening sensitivity analysis was first conducted for all families, systematically varying uncertain input parameters. Parameters with first-order impact on performance metrics (i.e., trapped gas, dissolved gas, brine leakage, storage ratio) are identified, which vary with time and modeling choice. When the model is of low complexity, engineering and environmental factors are identified as the most significant; when the model increases in complexity, geologic factors that influence aquifer heterogeneity become more important. Given the screening test outcome, a response surface analysis was carried out for each family to create prediction envelopes of the storage ratio. By the end of injection, all families predicted similar uncertainty in the storage ratio. After injection ceases, prediction envelopes of the families deviated gradually from one another as a result of different large-scale heterogeneity experienced by each family because the plume migrated continuously along dip. For this inclined aquifer, resources should be devoted first to characterize geologic uncertainty factors (i.e., porosity-permeability transform and facies correlation structure) that influence permeability magnitude and connectivity. The effect of these factors on flow, trapping, and storage becomes overwhelmingly important compared with engineering and environmental factors. Under conditions of low formation temperatures and high formation fluid pressures, representative plumes corresponding to end member storage ratios become gravity-stable.
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Acknowledgments
Funding for this study was provided by NSF (EAR-0838250) awarded to the first author. We acknowledge the donation of software (Petrel, Petrophysics Interactive, Eclipse) from Schlumberger, Inc. We also acknowledge detailed comments from two anonymous reviewers, which lead to improved organization and clarity of this paper.
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Journal of Hazardous, Toxic, and Radioactive Waste
Volume 19 • Issue 3 • July 2015
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 21, 2014
Accepted: Aug 11, 2014
Published online: Sep 17, 2014
Discussion open until: Feb 17, 2015
Published in print: Jul 1, 2015
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