Abstract
Estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are necessary for designing the maximum reservoir storage necessary to prevent dam overtopping. Recent investigations in Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania implied that reducing PMP rainfall estimates in West Virginia may be appropriate; however, additional studies in this data-deficient region with changing climate are necessary before any reductions are contemplated. The objective of this study was to re-evaluate PMP for the Lake Tuckahoe watershed in West Virginia. The 6-h, () PMP was evaluated for current (2019) and projected (2100) climates and compared with the design PMP. Then, the impact of the PMP alternatives was determined for Howard Creek Dam, which was selected to be a case study of a region delineated as a data-deficient region. The estimated current (2019) PMP is 4% greater than the design PMP, and the projected (2100) PMP is 14% greater than the design PMP. Analysis of the dynamic nonstationary climate anticipated for the Howard Creek Dam, designed for a stationary climate, showed inadequate storage that will increase the likelihood of dam overtopping. Therefore, this study cannot support a reduction in PMP for the Lake Tuckahoe watershed and similar surrounding watersheds.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, and code generated or used during the study appear in the published article.
Acknowledgments
This material is based upon work supported by the US Geological Survey under Grant/Cooperative Agreement No. G16AP00091. This work was also in collaboration with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection. The authors thank Delbert Shriver, Aaron Tonkery, and Leonel Medellin of the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection; Andy Deichert of the United States Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and Paul Ziemkiewicz of the West Virginia Water Research Institute for their continued support.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 27 • Issue 9 • September 2022
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© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Apr 26, 2021
Accepted: Apr 19, 2022
Published online: Jun 16, 2022
Published in print: Sep 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Nov 16, 2022
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