The Role of Climate in Monthly Baseflow Changes across the Continental United States
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 27, Issue 5
Abstract
Baseflow is the portion of streamflow that comes from groundwater and subsurface sources. Although baseflow is essential for sustaining streams during low flow and drought periods, we have little information about how and why it has changed over large regions of the continental United States. The objective of this study was to evaluate how changes in the climate system have affected observed monthly baseflow records at 3,283 USGS gauges over the last 30 years (1989–2019). We developed a statistical modeling framework to determine the relationship between monthly baseflow and monthly climate predictors (i.e., precipitation, temperature, and antecedent wetness). Overall, we found that baseflow trends and the factors influencing them vary by region and month. In the US Northeast, increases were detected earlier in the year (February and March) and in the summer (May and June), and were likely due to increasing precipitation, warmer temperature, and subsequent changes in snowmelt. Increasing baseflow in the US Pacific Northwest and Midwest were associated with increases in precipitation and antecedent wetness throughout the year. Decreasing trends were located in the US Southeast and Southwest. Baseflow trends in the US Southeast were only detected in March, possibly as a result of decreased precipitation during the spring. On the other hand, decreases in baseflow in the Central Southwestern United States occurred throughout the year. These trends were associated with a lack of precipitation and increases in temperature. Finally, we examined the relationship between monthly baseflow trends and changes in total water storage using monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mascon products from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. In this study, trends in total water storage were strongly associated with baseflow trends across the United States. The spatial and temporal variability in baseflow response to climate reported here can aid water managers in adapting to future climate change.
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Data Availability Statement
All data and models generated or used during the study appear in the published article. Some of data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available at https://github.com/jessayers20/Baseflow-Continental-US or from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. DGE 1633098, by Iowa State University under Iowa Development Authority Award No. 13-NDRP-016 through funding from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources. This work was conducted in conjunction with the Streamflow Depletion Across the United States Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the USGS. We thank two anonymous reviewers and Matt Miller (USGS) for their comments and suggestions. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 27 • Issue 5 • May 2022
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© 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: May 25, 2021
Accepted: Jan 11, 2022
Published online: Mar 10, 2022
Published in print: May 1, 2022
Discussion open until: Aug 10, 2022
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