Copula-Based Risk Analysis of Agricultural Water Shortage under Natural Precipitation Conditions in the Guanzhong Plain, a Drought-Prone Region of China
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 6
Abstract
Accurate risk forecasting of agricultural water shortages has important implications for the prevention and reduction of disasters in regional agricultural production. Encountering effective precipitation () and crop water requirements () can determine the regional agricultural water shortage risk under natural precipitation supply conditions. The Guanzhong Plain (GP) of China, divided into the Eastern Guanzhong Plain (EGP) and the Western Guanzhong Plain (WGP), is sensitive to water shortage due to the local semihumid and drought-prone climate. Based on the daily meteorological data at six representative weather stations in the GP from 1962 to 2016, and (marked as , , and , and , , and over a hydrological year, winter wheat growth period, and summer maize growth period, respectively) were computed, and copula functions were employed to model the joint distribution of and . The results showed that the mean values of , , and (533, 245, and 287 mm) in the EGP were smaller than those of , , and (599, 274, and 325 mm) in the WGP. However, the mean values of , , and (997, 494, and 502 mm) in the EGP were greater than those of , , and (895, 417, and 477 mm) in the WGP. The Frank copula was identified as the most suitable model for the joint modeling of and series. According to the joint probability distribution, the asynchronous encounter probability of and was around three or fourfold of the synchronous encounter probability in the GP. The occurrence probabilities of severe and extreme agricultural water shortage under natural precipitation supply condition were 0.24–0.27 and 0.04–0.06 in the EGP, while the corresponding values were 0.20–0.23 and 0.03–0.04 in the WGP. This study proved that natural precipitation could not meet crop water demand, and the joint encounter probability of low effective precipitation and high crop water demand was high, so irrigation and optimum agricultural water resource allocation are thus necessary for agricultural production in the semihumid and drought-prone region.
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Data Availability Statement
Some or all data, models, or code that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the National Climatic Centre of the China Meteorological Administration for providing the climate database used in this study. This work was also supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0400206), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51922072, 51779161, 51009161), Central University Special Fund Basic Research and Operating Expenses (2018CDPZH-10, 2016CDDY-S04-SCU, 2017CDLZN22). We thank the valuable comments and suggestions from the editors and reviewers.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 26 • Issue 6 • June 2021
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© 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Jul 25, 2020
Accepted: Jan 4, 2021
Published online: Mar 24, 2021
Published in print: Jun 1, 2021
Discussion open until: Aug 24, 2021
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