Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relations under Changing Climate for Selected Stations in the Tigray Region, Ethiopia
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 11
Abstract
Developing intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) of rainfall with the reflection of future climate change is required for designing and managing water infrastructures. Hence, this study was aimed to predict future changes in IDF information for seven stations of the Tigray Region. Observed hourly and spatiotemporally downscaled Hadley Center Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3) model output data sets via Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) 4.2.9 and Hyetos models were used. Gumbel [Extreme Value Type I (EVI)] distribution and MIDUSS IDF Curve Fit tool were employed for frequency analysis and estimation of IDF equation parameters. Finally, general trends for three future climate timelines were established. The result revealed that the rainfall intensity is expected to decrease by 15.9%, 14.7%, and 20.3% for short storms and increase by 21.3%, 26.9%, and 18.9% for longer storms in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, with frequent intensive rainfall occurrences by the 2020s and 2050s under the A2 emission scenario (high emission scenario). These have a great message to which the existing and future water management facilities are designed, functioned, and sustained. Thus, design facilities need to be updated as per the reflection of climate change impacts.
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Data Availability Statement
For this particular study, the following data sets and models were used:
1.
Monthly rainfall available in Excel format and daily hourly basis rainfall data series read by the author from the hard copy (charts) of the self-recording rain gauges of the stations for the period of 1991–2010 obtained from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Service Agency, Head office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
2.
GCM simulation output climate scenario data of the NCEP_1961–2001 reanalysis daily observed predictor; the 1961–2099 daily predictor data derived from the HadCM3 A2a and B2a experiment for the grid boxes of (), (), and () and the SDSM version 4.2.9 software were obtained from the Canadian Climate Impacts Scenario freely available at http://phobos.badc.rl.ac.uk/sres/hadcm3_download.html;
3.
Hyetos temporal rainfall disaggregation model software was borrowed from the author’s friend;
4.
Mann-Kendall trend test performed on an Excel spreadsheet prepared by the author; and
5.
Lognormal, log Pearson, and Gumbel frequency analysis and their chi-square fitting tests performed on an Excel spreadsheet prepared by the author using the respective formulas.
Acknowledgments
The author would like to acknowledge the Ministry of Education, Haramaya University, Ethiopia for funding the study, Ethiopian National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) for providing meteorological data free of charge, and Professor Shoeb Quraishi and Dr. Dessie Nedaw for their professional supervision and constructive comments.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 11 • November 2020
Copyright
© 2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: May 7, 2019
Accepted: Jun 3, 2020
Published online: Sep 12, 2020
Published in print: Nov 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Feb 12, 2021
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