A Risk Assessment of a Water-Sand Inrush during Coal Mining under a Loose Aquifer Based on a Factor Analysis and the Fisher Model
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 8
Abstract
This paper aims to investigate the safety problems related to coal mining under a loose aquifer, and uses the Factor Analysis (FA) and Fisher discriminant methods to analyze and assess the risk of a water-sand inrush under such conditions. Based on 26 sets of the collected geological parameters of the working faces of coal mines under loose aquifers, a comprehensive analysis shows that the risk factors of a water-sand inrush under a loose aquifer are mainly: the thickness of the bottom aquifer; the water pressure; the height of the caving zone; the thickness of the bedrock; the thickness of the bottom clay layer; the water abundance of the aquifer; and the water inflow at the working face. These factors were used as discrimination factors to test and predict the results by using the back-substitution estimate method. The results show that: the water pressure and the thickness of the bottom clay layer have a major influence on the risk of a water-sand inrush under a loose aquifer; and the predicted results of 23 sets of samples are consistent with the results from actual engineering practice, while the results of the remaining three sets are inaccurate. Accordingly, the error rate of the model is 0.115. Therefore, the FA-Fisher discriminant analysis model is highly reliable when conducting a risk assessment of a water-sand inrush under a loose aquifer, and can provide a scientific reference for the safety evaluation of coal mining under such conditions.
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Data Availability Statement
All data, models, or code generated or used during the study are available from the corresponding author by request.
Acknowledgments
This paper was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51774199). The authors would like to sincerely thank the Xinjulong Coal Mine of the Shandong Energy Xinwen Mining Group, the Baodian Coal Mine and Yangcun Coal Mine of the Yankuang Group, the Henghe Coal Mine of the Shandong Honghe Mining Group, the Guotun Coal Mine of the Heze Coal Power Company, the Gaozhuang Coal Mine of the Shandong Zaozhuang Mining Group, the Luwa Coal Mine of the Shandong Lutai Holding Group, the Xingtai Coal Mine of the Jizhong Energy Group, the Shigetai Coal Mine, Halagou Coal Mine, Daliuta Coal Mine and Shangwan Coal Mine of the Shenhua Group, and the Renlou Coal Mine of the Wanbei Coal-Electericity Group for providing the geological data. The authors also would like to thank Bing Gao and Bin Bai for their suggestions on how to improve this paper.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 8 • August 2020
Copyright
©2020 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 6, 2019
Accepted: Jan 28, 2020
Published online: May 20, 2020
Published in print: Aug 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Oct 20, 2020
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