Impact of ENSO, Global Warming, and Land Surface Elevation on Extreme Precipitation in India
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25, Issue 1
Abstract
The linkages of precipitation extremes with large-scale global climatic phenomenon such as global warming, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the land surface elevation were explored across India. Temporally, the annual average precipitation on rainy days (PRCPTOT) was found to exhibit decreasing trends for a larger part of India; however, most of the extreme precipitation indexes (EPIs) had increasing trends (except cumulative wet days) for a larger part of India. In addition, most EPIs exhibited a positive and statistically significant correlation of high magnitude with the land surface elevation for the elevation band above 1,500 m. Parts of northern, north-central, and northeastern India had a decrease in precipitation extremes with an increase in the global temperature, whereas an increase in EPIs per degree Celsius increase in the average global temperature was found for the eastern coastal regions and most parts of southern India. A spatial heterogeneity of teleconnections between precipitation extremes and the large-scale climatic indexes was found. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) had similar spatial patterns of correlation with the analyzed EPIs. Most EPIs except consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) had higher positive association with extreme events in the contiguous region of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. The NINO3 and NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) indexes had patches of higher correlation over south-central India. Moreover, teleconnections of ENSO with CDD were strongest with stronger correlation values and higher percentage of area with significant correlation compared with other indexes.
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Data Availability Statement
The following data, models, or code used during the study were provided by a third party:
1.
The Climdex package was provided publicly by the Pacific Climate Impact Consortium, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
2.
Meteorological data were purchased from the Indian Meteorological Department and can be purchased by request.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the editorial board and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments which helped to improve the quality of this manuscript.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 25 • Issue 1 • January 2020
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©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Dec 26, 2018
Accepted: Aug 27, 2019
Published online: Oct 31, 2019
Published in print: Jan 1, 2020
Discussion open until: Mar 31, 2020
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