Diagnosing Credibility of a Large-Scale Conceptual Hydrological Model in Simulating Streamflow
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24, Issue 4
Abstract
A robust hierarchical operational testing scheme has been adopted to test the credibility of a newly developed large-scale conceptual hydrological model in the Subarnarekha basin, India. We have evaluated the results using [combining Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and ], -, and -values [combining the jackknife method and analysis of variance (ANOVA)] along with root-mean square error (RMSE), NSE, , and percent bias (PBIAS). Results show that the model has passed various steps of the testing scheme successfully, and is both geographically and climatically transposable. The results of a proxy-basin test [transferring parameters into Ghatshila subbasin after calibration in Muri and crossvalidation in Jamshedpur ()] show satisfactory RMSE (), NSE (0.42), (0.45), PBIAS (30.22%), and statistically significant -value (0.043) and -value (0.002) to confirm the model as geographically transposable. Satisfactory RMSE (), NSE (0.66), (0.84), and PBIAS (1.66%) for dry year validation under differential split-sample test in Muri subbasin confirms the model as climatically transposable. The uncertainty analysis, using quantile regression technique, represents reasonable predictive ranges, e.g., for Muri calibration and validation 95 percent prediction uncertainty (PPU) band encloses 63% and 76% of the observations.
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Acknowledgments
This study is financially supported by Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad (Grant No. IIT/SRIC/AGFE/DWI/2013-14/124). The technical support of programmer Mr. Partha Samanta in developing the model is acknowledged. We also acknowledge the technical support of Dr. R. P. Singh and Dr. P. K. Gupta from SAC, Ahmedabad, and our other project partners from NERIST, Itanagar, IIT Guwahati, and IISc, Bangalore.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 24 • Issue 4 • April 2019
Copyright
©2019 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Nov 21, 2017
Accepted: Oct 9, 2018
Published online: Jan 30, 2019
Published in print: Apr 1, 2019
Discussion open until: Jun 30, 2019
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