Synthetic Flows for Engineered Systems with Nonstationary Parameters: Study of Maui’s Wailoa Ditch
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22, Issue 2
Abstract
Water flow through engineered channels is important for decision making given its close ties to availability for allocation. However, planners often rely on estimates for natural streamflow, then use stream-by-stream assumptions and aggregation to estimate allocatable flows rather than directly assessing flows through engineered channels. Further, synthetic flows based on historical records can be unreliable when parameter nonstationarity due to effects like climate change is likely. This case study of the Wailoa Ditch, a major engineered surface water supply system on Maui, Hawaii, uses a natural experiment based on Maui’s declining rainfall to demonstrate and validate that both problems can be addressed. For Wailoa, synthetic and actual flow characteristics differ by less than 5% when historical records are adjusted to reflect changing rainfall. Direct simulation of Wailoa’s flows reproduces modern conditions more accurately than stream-by-stream approximations. Precipitation-based scenario analysis suggests that under the influence of both decadal oscillations and climate change, Maui is far more likely to experience water supply shortages on its main engineered system in the future than in the past.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Ulupono Initiative and primarily performed in the Department of Environmental and Water Resources Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. The authors gratefully acknowledge the thought partnership and contacts provided by the Ulupono Initiative. We thank Dr. Carey King and Dr. Paola Passalacqua of the University of Texas at Austin for their comments on earlier versions of this work and our many colleagues on Maui who contributed to our understanding of Maui’s water and other infrastructural systems.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22 • Issue 2 • February 2017
Copyright
© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jun 2, 2016
Accepted: Jul 27, 2016
Published online: Aug 31, 2016
Discussion open until: Jan 31, 2017
Published in print: Feb 1, 2017
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