Assessing Uncertainty in Hydrological Processes Using a Fuzzy Vertex Simulation Method
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 4
Abstract
In this study, a fuzzy vertex simulation method (FVSM) is developed for assessing parameter uncertainty on modeling outputs of Xiangxi River Basin in China. The FVSM couples a fuzzy vertex analysis approach with a semidistributed hydrological model to reflect effects of uncertain parameters on hydrological possesses. In FVSM, the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) is used for predicting streamflow of saturated area in the catchment by tackling the distribution of the topographic index; the fuzzy vertex analysis method specializes in dealing with ambiguous coefficients based on fuzzy sets theory and -cut analysis technique. The modeling outputs (i.e., Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and the sum of the squared errors) indicate a good performance of TOPMODEL in describing the daily streamflow at four hydrological stations in the study basin. The uncertainties of two parameters ( and ) are examined under different -cut levels. The results indicate that flow interval is wide under a low degree of plausibility (i.e., a low -cut level); conversely, a high degree of plausibility would lead to a narrow interval. Sensitivity analysis and factorial analysis are conducted, the results of which imply that the effect of is more significant than the effect of on hydrological modeling simulation. Results also reveal that the interactive effect of and is small, which can be neglected in the subsequent simulation. The findings can help quantify the multiple uncertain parameters and their interactions on modeling simulation as well as enhance the hydrological model’s capabilities for water resources management.
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Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation (Nos. 51225904, 51190095, and 51520105013) and the Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography. The authors are extremely grateful to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 4 • April 2016
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© 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 27, 2014
Accepted: Nov 2, 2015
Published online: Jan 7, 2016
Published in print: Apr 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Jun 7, 2016
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