Real-Time Flood Forecasting System: Case Study of Hsia-Yun Watershed, Taiwan
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 4
Abstract
Typhoons and heavy storms frequently cause severe inundation in Taiwan. For early flood warning purposes, a real-time flood forecasting system was acknowledged as a pivotal tool and developed in this study. The system integrates four parts: (1) a gray-based rainfall prediction model, (2) the antecedent hydrological condition estimation method, (3) a deterministic runoff model, and (4) a runoff updating algorithm. The developed system was applied to the Hsia-Yun watershed in Taiwan. The time-invariant parameters, which characterize terrain features, were calibrated in advance. Additionally the time-variant parameters were modeled to change with temporal hydrological condition of the watershed. The gray theory was performed to predict the rainfall intensity in the next 1–3 h, which thus enables the runoff model to forecast incoming runoff in the next 1–3 h. By consulting the real-time feedback flow observation, a runoff updating algorithm was adopted and was helpful in improving the performance of the simulated hydrographs. In real-time application, the system can be initiated or terminated by detecting if the cumulative rainfall depth is larger or less than a predefined threshold value. The idea of the developed system has recently been constructed with a visual interface for real-time flood forecasting by authorities. The overall results confirm that the developed system is competent to forecast flash floods.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the National Science Council, Taiwan, R.O.C. under grant 103-2811-M-019-007. The hydrological records provided by the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan are gratefully acknowledged.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 4 • April 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Mar 20, 2015
Accepted: Sep 28, 2015
Published online: Dec 21, 2015
Published in print: Apr 1, 2016
Discussion open until: May 21, 2016
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