Abstract
The impact of prospective climate change on the hydrological and ecological status of the mountain stretch of the Serio river (ca. ) in the Northern Italian Alps was investigated. A hydrological model was used to mimic theflow regime, and experimental suitability curves were used to assess weighted usable area (WUA) for brown trout (Salmo trutta) in different stages (adult, young, and spawning), and four macroinvertebrates families (Leuctridae, Heptageniidae, Limnephilidae, and Limoniidae). Discharge-WUA curves were obtained using instream flow incremental methodology/physical habitat simulation system (IFIM-PHABSIM), and a seasonal WUA assessment was carried out. The future (until 2100) hydrological cycle was projected using outputs from two general circulation models from Assessment Report 5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results display a potential for a large flow decrease yearly, until at 2050 and at 2090. Spring melt peaks will be largely dampened, with the largest projected decrease of in 2050 and in 2090. Also fall flows will be largely smoothed, down to for 2050 and for 2090. To quantify habitat quality, a specific quantile , was used and exceeded presently for 292 days in a year, and the percentage of critical days when . Adult trouts will have decreasing yearly (from 20% now to down to 13% in 2090), increasing in winter and spring and decreasing in fall. Young trouts will have decreasing yearly (from 20% now to down to 2% in 2040 and 2090), but increasing in winter. Spawning, occurring in winter, will have lower (from 16% now, to down to 8% in 2090). Macroinvertebrate families will have constant yearly, unless for Leuctridae (from 20% now to up to 38% in 2050), and noticeable decrease of in winter for Leuctridae until 2090, increase in spring and summer, and decrease in fall for all families until 2090. Correlation analysis of the WUA against weather and hydrological variables displayed that temperature is the most influencing variable, decreasing habitat suitability for all species in fall, and increasing suitability in spring, unless for young trouts.
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Acknowledgments
The present work was developed in fulfilment of the project impact of climate change on the alpine water resources (I-CARE) (Bando 5xMille, Politecnico di Milano, 2009). Engineer Ester Nana, and Eng. Andrea Soncini, at Politecnico di Milano, are kindly acknowledged for providing help with GCM data treatment. Daniele Bocchiola acknowledges support from Everest K2 National Research Council association through Share-Stelvio project. GCM climate projections data were used for this study from CCSM4 (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org), and ECHAM6 (http://cera-www.dkrz.de/WDCC/ui/Index.jsp) models. Three anonymous reviewers and a section editor are acknowledged for providing suggestions helping to make the paper more readable and consistent.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 2 • February 2016
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© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Feb 17, 2015
Accepted: Jul 19, 2015
Published online: Sep 14, 2015
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
Discussion open until: Feb 14, 2016
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