Trend and Variability in Observed Hydrological Extremes in the United States
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 2
Abstract
Identification of changes in hydrological extremes plays an important role in water resources management. This study investigates various properties in hydrological extremes including annual maximum daily flow (high flow) and annual minimum 7-day flow (low flow) in 252 unimpaired streamflow gauges in the continental United States. Three statistical methodologies are performed: the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is used to evaluate temporal trends; the non-parametric change point Pettitt test, to identify abrupt shifts; and the quantile perturbation method, to assess temporal variability. In the results of trend analysis, low flow exhibited some spatial patterns compared to high flow. In addition, low flow has increased over 64 years (1950–2013) in many stations. The Pettitt test indicates that low flows have experienced more significant abrupt changes compared to high flow. The results of the quantile perturbation method confirm that many significant increasing trends obtained during the 64 years of low flow are attributable to infrequent low flow events in the period before 1970. These findings highlight that various statistical approaches complement each other and must be simultaneously applied to hydrological time series.
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Acknowledgments
Funding for this study was provided by the Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center. The authors are grateful to three anonymous reviewers of this paper for their thoughtful insights and useful suggestions.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 2 • February 2016
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Feb 9, 2015
Accepted: Jun 26, 2015
Published online: Aug 26, 2015
Discussion open until: Jan 26, 2016
Published in print: Feb 1, 2016
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