Probability Structure and Return Period of Multiday Monsoon Rainfall
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21, Issue 1
Abstract
The daily monsoon rainfall data recorded at Subang Airport, Malaysia, from 1960 to 2011 is examined in terms of probability structure for the estimation of extreme daily rainfall precipitation during the Northeast (NE) and Southwest (SW) Malaysian monsoons. The discrete autoregressive and moving average [DARMA(1,1)] model is preferable to the first-order Markov chain [DAR(1)] model. The conditional probabilities of consecutive rainy days are time dependent. Nevertheless, a simple two-parameter gamma distribution appropriately fits the frequency distribution of multiday rainfall amounts. An algorithm is developed by combining the DARMA(1,1) and gamma models to estimate the return period of multiday rainfall. Extensive comparisons showed that the DARMA(1,1)-gamma model gives a reliable estimate of the return period of rainfall for both NE and SW monsoons at Subang Airport. Furthermore, values generated from the models enable the analysis of the frequency distribution of extreme rainfall events.
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Acknowledgments
This study has been carried out at Colorado State University during the Ph.D. studies of the first author. Financial support for the first author from the Ministry of Education, Malaysia and Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia is gratefully acknowledged.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 21 • Issue 1 • January 2016
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© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Aug 2, 2013
Accepted: Apr 21, 2015
Published online: Jun 17, 2015
Discussion open until: Nov 17, 2015
Published in print: Jan 1, 2016
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