Correlating MJO Activity with Argentina Rainfall and Atlantic Hurricanes Using ICI-RAFT
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22, Issue 5
Abstract
Knowledge of how the frequency and intensity of extreme events are affected by climate variability will contribute to answering questions related to drought and water availability that are important in water resources management. A tool titled the “International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management–Regional Analysis of Frequency Tool” (ICI-RAFT), which includes a database of several climate indices, was developed to accomplish this using rainfall observations on the ground. The method used was applied to rainfall obtained from 20 rain gauges in western central Argentina and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean during the respective active seasons. The global climate index that was found to have the greatest impact in both cases was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is the focus of the current study. Specifically, MJO activity over central Africa (MJO9) using a lag of 4 months and the western Indian Ocean (MJO10) using zero lag had the greatest influences, respectively. It was found that knowledge of the value of the MJO at these locations allows the prediction of below- or above-average rainfall or hurricane conditions for the current season and even allows a more precise quantitative estimate of this activity to be made.
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Acknowledgments
The author would like to acknowledge those individuals at ICI-WaRM who allowed him the time required to develop the software ICI-RAFT. The author would also like to acknowledge Dr. Michael Wright, who played a large role in developing and validating ICI-RAFT. Finally, the author would like to acknowledge Dr. Roberto Seiler from the Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, who provided the data that made the current analysis possible.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 22 • Issue 5 • May 2017
Copyright
© 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Oct 17, 2014
Accepted: Apr 9, 2015
Published online: Jun 18, 2015
Discussion open until: Nov 18, 2015
Published in print: May 1, 2017
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