Managing Hydrological Risks with Extreme Modeling: Application of Peaks over Threshold Model to the Loukkos Watershed, Morocco
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 9
Abstract
The peaks over threshold (POT) is a widely used technique to describe the exceedances of hydrological data above a threshold. It is well known that, under some conditions, the exceedances distribution can be approximated by a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The lack of a generally accepted methodology for selecting the optimal threshold is a major issue of the POT technique. In this paper an integrated approach is proposed that combines some graphical approaches with some analytical approaches to identify the optimal threshold and estimate the shape parameter of the exceedances distribution. Such a combination intends to reduce the subjectivity in graphical methods, and to refine their finding by using rigorous mathematical tools of analytical methods. First, a statistical test is used to select the appropriate GPD fitting the exceedances. Then, three numerical approaches, namely the likelihood ratio test, square error method, and multiple threshold method, are applied to detect the optimal threshold above which exceedances can be approximated by a GPD. These techniques are illustrated in a case study of Loukkos basin, a water resource of great importance in Morocco.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the editors and referees for their valuable suggestions that improved the original version of this paper. This work was partially supported through FACE 106372-013, a project sponsored by IRIACC/IDRC.
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Published In
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19 • Issue 9 • September 2014
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 16, 2013
Accepted: Mar 6, 2014
Published online: Mar 10, 2014
Published in print: Sep 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Nov 18, 2014
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