Trend, Independence, Stationarity, and Homogeneity Tests on Maximum Rainfall Series of Standard Durations Recorded in Turkey
This article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYThis article has a reply.
VIEW THE REPLYPublication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 9
Abstract
Data of 14 standard duration annual maximum rainfall series with durations of 5 min to 24 h and lengths between 30 and 73 years up to 2010 that were recorded in Turkey are used. Mann-Kendall and linear regression trend, von Neumann independence, Wald-Wolfowitz stationarity, and Mann-Whitney homogeneity tests are applied on 155 complete series with a 24-h duration and 23 complete series with 14 standard durations. Next, only the linear regression test is applied on 174 incomplete series of 14 standard durations. The results of these tests indicate that almost 90% of all annual maximum rainfall series are trend free, independent, stationary, and homogeneous at a critical probability of 5%. Finally, the newly proposed Sen’s trend line method is applied to some series and its results are observed to be in agreement with both the Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests. It is concluded that standard duration annual maximum rainfall series in Turkey can be generally treated as independent and identically distributed random variables, which allow conventional intensity-duration-frequency calculations to be performed by statistical frequency analysis.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to (1) the General Directorate of Meteorological Works of Turkey for providing the data and (2) to Zekai Sen for providing the software for his method.
References
Anderson, B. T., Hayhoe, K., and Liang, X.-Z. (2010). “Anthropogenic-induced changes in twenty-first century summertime hydroclimatology of the Northeastern U.S.” Clim. Change, 99(3–4), 403–423.
Ball, T. (1992). “An iconoclast’s view of climatic change.” Can. Water Resour. J., 17(2), 151–160.
Bierkens, M. F. P. (2006). “Chapter 4, Hydrological statistics and extremes.” Lecture notes of the course: Stochastic hydrology (GEO4-4420), Dept. of Physical Geography, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, Netherlands.
Bostan, P. A., and Akyurek, Z. (2007). “Trend analysis of Turkey annual and seasonal mean precipitation and temperature values.” Proc., 5th National Hydrology Congress, Middle East Technical Univ., Ankara, Turkey, 83–92.
Burn, D. H., Mansour, R., Zhang, K., and Whitfield, P. H. (2011). “Trends and variability in extreme rainfall events in British Columbia.” Can. Water Resour. J., 36(1), 67–82.
Collins, M. J. (2009). “Evidence for changing flood risk in New England since the late 20th century.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 45(2), 279–290.
Douglas, E. M., and Fairbank, C. A. (2011). “Is precipitation in northern New England becoming more extreme? Statistical analysis of extreme rainfall in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine and updated estimates of the 100-year storm.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 203–217.
Fujibe, F., Yamazaki, N., Katsuyama, M., and Kobayashi, K. (2005). “The increasing trend of intense precipitation in Japan based on four-hourly data for a hundred years.” SOLA, 1(2005), 41–44.
Gerald, L. A., and Watkins, D. W. (2005). “Short duration rainfall frequency analysis in Michigan using scale-invariance assumptions.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 450–457.
Groisman, P. Y., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R., Karl, T. R., Hegerl, G. C., and Razuvaev, V. N. (2005). “Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record.” J. Clim., 18(9), 1326–1350.
Guo, Y. (2006). “Updating rainfall IDF relationships to maintain urban drainage design standards.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 506–509.
Helsel, D. R., and Hirsch, R. M. (2002). “Statistical methods in water resources.” Chapter A3, Techniques of water resources investigations, Book 4, U.S. Geological Survey, Shenandoah, TX.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2007). “Climate change 2007: Physical science basis.” Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Rep. of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, New York.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2008). “Climate change and water.” Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. C. Bates, et al., eds., IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, Switzerland.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2011). “Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation.” A Special Rep. of Working Group I and Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, C. B. Field, et al., eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
Kalra, A., Piechota, T. C., Davies, R., and Tootle, G. A. (2008). “Changes in U.S. streamflow and western U.S. snowpack.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 156–163.
Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods, Griffin, London.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., et al. (2005). “Summer floods in Central Europe—Climate change track?” Nat. Hazards, 36(1–2), 165–189.
Morozova, A. L., and Valente, M. A. (2012). “Homogenization of Portuguese long-term temperature data series: Lisbon, Coimbra and Porto.” Earth system science data, open access, 〈www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/4/187/2012〉 (Dec. 14, 2012).
Mullan, B., et al. (2008). Climate change effects and impacts assessment: A guidance manual for local governments in New Zealand, 2nd Ed., Ministry of the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand.
Nandargi, S., and Dhar, O. N. (2011). “Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007.” Hydrol. Sci. J., 56(6), 930–945.
Neumann, J. V. (1941). “Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance.” Ann. Math. Stat., 12(4), 367–395.
Partal, T., and Kahya, E. (2006). “Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data.” Hydrol. Process., 20(9), 2011–2026.
Porras, P. J., Sr., and Porras, P. J., Jr. (2001). “New perspective on rainfall frequency curves.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 82–85.
Rao, A. R., and Hamed, K. H. (2000). “Flood frequency analysis.” 1.8. tests on hydrologic data, CRC, Boca Raton, FL.
Salinger, M. J. (2005). “Climate variability and change: Past, present and future—An overview.” Clim. Change, 70(1–2), 9–29.
Saplioglu, K., and Coban, E. (2013). “Trend analyses of precipitation series in the Black Sea region.” Proc., 7th National Hydrology Congress, Suleyman Demirel Univ., Isparta, Turkey, 500–511.
Sen, Z. (2012). “Innovative trend analysis methodology.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 1042–1046.
Sen, Z. (2013). “Trend identification simulation and application.” J. Hydrol. Eng., 635–642.
Türkeş, M. (1996). “Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey.” Int. J. Climatol., 16(9), 1057–1076.
Türkeş, M., Koc, T., and Saris, F. (2009). “Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey.” Int. J. Climatol., 29(8), 1056–1074.
Villarini, G., Smith, J. A., Baeck, M. L., and Krajewski, W. F. (2011). “Examining flood frequency distributions in the midwest U.S.” J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47(3), 447–463.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO). (2009). “Guide to hydrological practices, volume II, management of water resources and application of hydrological practices.” Chapter 5, Extreme value analysis, WMO-No. 168, 6th Ed., Geneva, Switzerland.
Yavuz, H., and Erdogan, S. (2012). “Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey.” Water Resour. Manage., 26(3), 609–621.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Copyright
© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Apr 1, 2013
Accepted: Jan 23, 2014
Published online: Jan 25, 2014
Published in print: Sep 1, 2014
Discussion open until: Nov 18, 2014
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Citations
Download citation
If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download.