Objective Reduction of Rain Gauge Network via Geostatistical Analysis of Uncertainty in Radar-Gauge Precipitation Estimation
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20, Issue 4
Abstract
A procedure for the objective reduction of a rain gauge network is developed and applied for the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) in the United States. The procedure utilizes evaluation of the theoretical error variance associated with precipitation analysis using a variant of the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE). The uncertainty analysis is carried out for 16 different combinations of the precipitation accumulation period, season, magnitude, and areal extent, and use or nonuse of the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), which is used as a proxy for the spatially varying runoff ratio. To estimate the statistical parameters of the procedure, the historical archive of the MPE products operationally produced by the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) was used. The marginal value of each rain gauge in the Susquehanna Flood Forecasting and Warning System (SFFWS) network to the parent network is assessed by calculating the increase in the theoretical error variance in radar-gauge precipitation analysis over the SRB following hypothetical removal of the gauge. The parent network is made of 73 gauges in the SFFWS network plus 120 high-quality hourly and subhourly rain gauges within and in the vicinity of the SRB. The results show that significant variability exists in the rankings of the marginal value of the SFFWS gauges among the 16 cases considered. The most significant source of this variability is the seasonal variation in the spatial structure of precipitation. The second most significant source is the use or nonuse of the FFPI. Given the significant sensitivity to these and possibly other factors, one may not expect a unique solution for optimal network reduction. For robust decision making, an ensemble of solutions should be considered that reflects the range of variability in such factors.
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Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC). This support is gratefully acknowledged. We would like to thank Reggina Cabrera and Laurie Hogan of NWS/ER, Joe Ostrowski and David Solano of NWS/MARFC, Joe Ceru of NWS/WFO State College, and Paul Tilles and Yu Zhang of NWS/OHD for providing the data used in this work and for very helpful input throughout the course of this study. We would also like to thank Ben Pratt of SRBC for administrative support throughout the course of this work.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 20 • Issue 4 • April 2015
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
History
Received: Jan 13, 2013
Accepted: Jan 3, 2014
Published online: Jan 6, 2014
Discussion open until: Jan 6, 2015
Published in print: Apr 1, 2015
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