Effect of Short-Term and Long-Term Persistence on Identification of Temporal Trends
Publication: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
Volume 19, Issue 3
Abstract
In this study, the trends in precipitation in the northwest (NW) of Iran were identified using the four different versions of the Mann-Kendall method, i.e., the conventional Mann-Kendall method (MK1); the Mann-Kendall method following the removal of the effect of significant lag-1 autocorrelation (MK2); the Mann-Kendall method after the removal of the effect of all significant autocorrelation coefficients (MK3); and the Mann-Kendall method by considering the Hurst coefficient (MK4). Identification of trends was carried out on different time scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual) using the precipitation data of 50 years from 1955 to 2004 of the sixteen stations selected from the NW region of Iran. The Theil-Sen method was used to estimate the slopes of trend lines of precipitation series. Results showed that: (1) on a monthly time scale, the statistically significant -statistics were negative for all but one (July) month; and the strongest negative (positive) precipitation trend-line slope among all the negative (positive) cases was found to be at Bijar (Kermanshah) station in NW Iran; (2) on a seasonal time scale, the median of trend-line slopes was found to be negative in all four seasons; the winter and spring season’s precipitation series witnessed negative trends for almost all the stations using all four different versions of the MK test; and in the summer and autumn seasons, both upward and downward trends were observed for most of the sites of NW Iran; (3) in an annual time scale, all stations had witnessed negative trends using both the MK1 and the MK4 tests. However, application of the MK4 instead of the MK1 reduced the absolute value of the -statistic for most of the time series. The strongest negative annual trend-line slope was at Bijar station. Therefore, the observed decreases in precipitation in NW Iran in the recent half of the past century may have serious implications for water resources management under the warming climate with probably a higher rate of the population growth and the higher consumption of freshwater as a result of the rise in standards of living of the population of NW Iran.
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions that have led to the improved quality of the paper. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support received for this research from the Office of Vice Chancellor for Research of the Univ. of Tabriz (Iran).
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© 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
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Received: Nov 4, 2011
Accepted: Mar 15, 2013
Published online: Mar 18, 2013
Discussion open until: Aug 18, 2013
Published in print: Mar 1, 2014
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